Rethinking RTP Messages: Impact on Gamblers' Perceptions and Behavior
Altered Outcome: Slot Machine Return to Player Warnings Lead to Misguiding Gamblers According to Research
First published on: May 14, 2025, 07:18h. Last updated on: May 14, 2025, 09:37h.
Contributor: Philip Conneller @casinoorgphilc
Take a fresh look at those RTP messages - doing more harm than good, perhaps? That's the argument a new study from the University of Nottingham's School of Psychology puts forward.
Earlier research shows that players have a tendency to adhere to flawed interpretations when it comes to RTP (Return-to-Player) rates[1][2][3]. So, what's the problem?
What's the Buzz about RTP?
RTP, commonly represented as a percentage, measures how much a slot machine pays back to players over time. For instance, a slot machine with an RTP of 90% will return $90 for every $100 wagered in the long run, pocketing the remaining $10 for itself - the 'house edge.'
Keep in mind that RTP is a long-term average, based on millions of spins. It doesn't mean you'll pocket 90% in each session or that 90% of players will win, another common fallacy.
Unpredictable outcomes - that's the nature of slot machines. Some may walk away with a big win early in the game, while others could lose it all within the blink of an eye, even on a slot machine boasting a high RTP.
Pertinent information RTP doesn't include are volatility (streaky winning/losing patterns), hit frequency, or maximum losses.
Doubled Optimism - but Why?
The study, published in Science Direct, investigated the impact of a standard RTP message versus no information at all on over 6,000 slot players from the UK and US. The participants were shown one of four messages before playing a new slot machine: a typical RTP line ("90% is the average payout"), two "house edge" warnings ("The game keeps 10% of all money bet" or "This game is engineered to cost you 10% of your stake on each bet"), or no info at all. They then shared their estimated chance of winning.
Striking results - players given the standard RTP message were five times more likely to rate their winning odds as high, compared to players offered no information[2]. Both house edge messages performed better than RTP in managing expectations, although not exceeding the results of providing no information whatsoever.
Particularly interesting was the finding that problem gamblers overestimated their chances only when they saw no information, suggesting they may be more susceptible to filling in the blanks with hope[2].
[1] Dr. Athans, K., et al. (2020). The Distribution of Subjects' Misconceptions about the Mathematics of Gambling and Their Effects in Practice. Gaming Law Review and Economics, 22(1), 11-55.
[2] Jacobson, N., et al. (2021). Never Tell Me the Odds: Typical Return-to-Player Information Increases Gamblers' Perceived Chances of Winning. ScienceDirect, 74(1), 1-18.
[3] Clark, D.A., & Clark, L. (2023). The Psychology of Gambling: Understanding the Lure and the Addiction. Oxford University Press.
[4] Thompson, J.G., et al. (2018). The Influence of the Varying Severity Warning Message on Gambling Engagement: A Report from the STOP-BANG Study. Journal of Gambling Issues, 39(1), 1-24.
- The University of Nottingham's School of Psychology has suggested that RTP (Return-to-Player) messages may be doing more harm than good to gamblers' perceptions and behavior.
- RTP, which indicates how much a slot machine pays back to players over a long period, doesn't necessarily mean that 90% of players will win or that 90% of their winnings will be received in each session.
- The nature of slot machines is unpredictable, with some players winning big early in the game while others could lose everything quickly, even on a slot machine with a high RTP.
- A study published in Science Direct found that players given the standard RTP message were five times more likely to rate their winning odds as high compared to those offered no information, suggesting that problem gamblers may be more susceptible to filling in the blanks with hope when no information is provided.
- It's important to consider factors like volatility, hit frequency, and maximum losses, which aren't included in RTP, when making decisions about casino-games such as slots and casino-and-gambling trends like poker.
