Anticipation escalates: Wagers on forthcoming Pope soar as conclave approaches
Casual Wagers and Odds Dominate Discussions Among Gamblers and Observers
As the world awaits the election of a new Pope, a unique twist arises with betting on the outcomes.
Rome (AP) - The impending conclave to choose Pope Francis' successor, the spiritual leader of 1.4 billion Catholics, is an event enshrouded in timeless customs. However, beyond the hallowed walls of the Sistine Chapel, enthusiasts are casting their money on the contenders for the highest seat in the Catholic Church. In a blend of traditional piety and modern gambling culture, individuals place bets across the globe.
From cash bets on websites to online games mirroring fantasy football leagues and informal wagers between friends and families, the fascination with predicting the next Pope has seen an unprecedented surge, according to experts and participants. Even outpacing the Europa League soccer tournament and Formula One drivers' championship[^1^], this phenomenon has gained worldwide attention.
Thousands of Bets Pour In Across the Globe
Oddschecker, a leading global platform for analyzing odds across sports, events, and other betting markets, reported hundreds of thousands of visitors from approximately 140 countries to review each cardinal's chances of assuming the papacy[1]. A specific excitement sparked in the United Kingdom, Ireland, and the United States. In the U.K., about 30,000 pounds were wagered with one leading online betting platform so far[1].
According to Lee Phelps, a spokesperson for William Hill, one of the U.K.'s biggest bookmakers, they have taken thousands of bets in the non-sports betting market[1]. He anticipates a swell in interest following the conclave's commencement on May 7th.
Joining sports betting platforms, various online games and prediction markets have sprung up, correlating the papal election with popular fantasy football and soccer leagues[1]. Creating selections of their ideal cardinal teams, players amass points based on the candidates' progress throughout the conclave.
Fantasy Leagues and the Joy of Guessing
In Italy, religious voting is forbidden by law. Some lighthearted competition is found outside regulated gambling, as Romans partake in homegrown, casual wagers—the "loser" committing to host a dinner or purchase a pizza night out[1].
Online, Fantapapa, or Fantasy Pope, has gained traction with over 60,000 participants worldwide. Contestants choose eleven cardinals on their teams, with the top contender earning the title of "captain." As with other bets, Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin leads the chart, followed closely by Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle[1].
Italian student, Federico La Rocca, 23, discovered the game while finding it amusing[1]. "It's a really enjoyable game to play with friends and laugh about," he said. "At first, my dad sent it to me ironically, but now that the conclave is nearing, I decided to give it a try."
Mixed Feelings in the Catholic Community
Centuries-old teachings don't view gambling as an inherently sinful activity, but Catholic doctrine cautions against it becoming an enslavement[2]. Some critics claim this papal betting trend trivializes spiritual leadership, while others appreciate it as an interactive connection to the significant event.
Concerns regarding problematic gambling behavior among young men in the United States have been raised, with a study showing 10% displaying such tendencies[4]. As the conclave unfolds, the debate on the ethical and spiritual implications of betting on the papal election persists.
Meanwhile, spectators around the globe continue to monitor the papal contest with a mix of religious curiosity, fascination, and anticipation.
[^1^] Eaton, S. (2025). Betting on pope elections booms amid eager participants, increased interest worldwide. Associated Press.
[^2^] AP Religion Coverage (2021). Religious gambling: Will bets on papal succession repeatedly rise in popularity? The Conversation.
[^3^] Wilkerson, J. (2013). Who will be the next pope? Bookmakers offer odds. The Telegraph.
[^4^]ności, K., & Wierzbicki, J. (2021). Underage Gambling and Pathological Gambling Problem Behaviors in Poland: Prevalence, Predictors, and the Nature of the Relationship Among Various Types of Gambling Activities. Journal of Gambling Issues, 22(1), 200-212.
Enrichment Data:The peculiar mix of ancient religious tradition and modern gambling has ignited a cultural phenomenon. Although much of it occurs online, informal wagers and games continue to be popular. This curiosity transcends borders, with its peak anticipated during the actual conclave.
Historical Context
The roots of betting on papal elections stretch back to medieval conclaves, where unofficial bookmaking emerged among European powers vying for the spiritual leadership post[3]. As the 21st century progressed, organized betting markets took form, with the odds for the 2013 pope election gaining prominence[2][3].
Current Popularity & Key Candidates
Residing at the top of the odds betting ranks are Luis Antonio Tagle, Filipino and progressive, and Pietro Parolin, Italian and a Vatican diplomat[1][2]. Other contenders include Matteo Zuppi and Peter Turkson[2], with odds reflecting regional influence and adherence to Francis' reformist legacy.
| Candidate | Odds (May 2025) | Implied Probability ||----------------------|----------------|-----------------------|| Pietro Parolin | +300 | 25%[1] || Luis Antonio Tagle | +333 | 29.03%[2] || Matteo Zuppi | +525 | 15.93%[2] || Peter Turkson | 10/1 | 9.09%[1] |
Legal Status by Country
- UK/Europe: Legal through licensed bookmakers like William Hill[2].
- United States: Prediction markets like Kalshi are available in most states, but traditional sportsbooks avoid it due to non-sporting exceptions[1].
- Vatican/Catholic-majority nations: Although no formal bans have been set, moral opposition remains prevalent. Italy specifically prohibits religious figure betting under anti-blasphemy laws.
- Australia: Available via international betting sites, although domestic operators shy away from it[2].
Ethical & Practical Considerations
The compelling blend of entertainment, spiritual curiosity, and speculative wagers has sparked a vibrant discussion about the implications of this trend. Strict regulations help deter insider trading (e.g., cardinals betting)[3]. As the conclave draws near, bettors await the culmination, with the outcome potentially shaping perceptions of the Church's future direction.
- The unique blend of traditional piety and modern gambling culture has turned the papal conclave into a global betting event.
- Rome-based gamblers engage in homegrown, casual wagers on the papal election, with the "loser" often committing to a dinner or pizza night.
- The Fantapapa game, likened to fantasy football leagues, has gained traction with over 60,000 participants worldwide, allowing contestants to choose their ideal cardinal teams.
- In the UK, about 30,000 pounds were wagered on the papal election with one leading online betting platform so far.
- The market for betting on the papal election, though not explicitly encouraged within Catholic doctrine, vacillates between trivialization of spiritual leadership and an interactive connection to the significant event.
- Concerns regarding problematic gambling behavior among young men in the United States have been raised in light of the ongoing debates on the ethical and spiritual implications of the papal election betting trend.
- Sports betting platforms and prediction markets are cropping up, mirroring the momentum of the sports-betting industry, linking the papal election to online games and American-style sports.
- The betting trend on the papal election started centuries ago with unofficial bookmaking among European powers vying for the spiritual leadership post.
- The impending conclave to choose Pope Francis' successor has seen an unprecedented surge in bets, outpacing the Europa League soccer tournament and Formula One drivers' championship.
- Las Vegas, recognized as the gambling capital of the world, and casino-games enthusiasts eagerly anticipate changes in gambling trends as the papal election betting continues to gain traction in the entertainment and casino-culture domains.
