Contending with Elite Fantasy Football Players: A Debate from the Dark Side
In the world of fantasy football, predicting a player's performance can be a challenging task. Even the most coveted players, such as Le'Veon Bell (2.0) and Antonio Brown (5.6), are not immune to underperforming or facing unexpected challenges.
Le'Veon Bell, the Pittsburgh Steelers' running back, has been one of the most sought-after players in fantasy football. His 2017 season saw him accumulate 406 touches, a feat only achieved by Chris Johnson in 2009 and DeMarco Murray in 2014, both of whom had inconsistent performances as RB1-level players for the remainder of their careers. Bell's history with the ball also raises concerns, as he has had nine fumbles in his only two full seasons.
Antonio Brown, on the other hand, has consistently ranked as one of the top three WRs in fantasy points for the last four years. However, his age (30 years old) and the conventional wisdom of a decline in performance for aging receivers could potentially impact his future performance.
Todd Gurley, the Los Angeles Rams' running back, led the NFL in combined rushing/receiving touchdowns and fantasy scoring in 2017. However, it is not expected that he will post nearly 20 TDs again due to the inconsistency of touchdowns in fantasy football. Furthermore, the addition of new weapons in the passing game, such as Brandin Cooks, could make Gurley less necessary in the vertical attack.
Ezekiel Elliott, the Dallas Cowboys' running back, had a lower per-carry average in his second season compared to his rookie season. Additionally, his past allegations of domestic violence led to a league-mandated suspension of six games. The potential for future suspensions could be a concern.
Injuries can also significantly alter a player's trajectory. For instance, David Johnson, the Arizona Cardinals' running back, dislocated his wrist in the third quarter of the 2017 season opener and was placed on season-long injured reserve.
It's important to note that even players with the highest average draft positions (ADP) aren't immune to underperforming. Predicting whose performance will suffer from an injury, such as a high ankle sprain or a torn ACL, is difficult. Only 10 times in the past decade have WRs posted at least 200 PPR points, and only four of them were all-time great Larry Fitzgerald.
In conclusion, while drafting for fantasy football, it's crucial to consider a player's past performance, age, injury history, and potential off-field issues. The performance of a first-round talent can sometimes be affected by unforeseeable reasons, so it's essential to stay informed and adapt strategies accordingly.
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