Countries engaging in trade despite ongoing conflicts
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In the midst of conflict, trade can be a complex and intriguing matter. Mariya Grinberg, an assistant professor of political science at MIT, delves into this topic in her new book, "Trade in War: Economic Cooperation Across Enemy Lines."
Grinberg's research sheds light on the fascinating world of wartime trade, a tradeoff between military benefits and economic costs that needs to be understood on a granular level. The book explores the impact on a state's economy, the usefulness of specific products to enemies, and the duration of the war.
During World War I, Germany started trading dyes with Britain, despite the strategic importance of such goods in military production. German planners believed that the introduction of unrestricted submarine warfare would bring the war to a swift end in their favour. However, history tells a different story.
Wartime trade is not a new phenomenon. It was formalised during the Crimean War with the 1856 Declaration of Paris, which allowed for goods to be shipped via neutral parties during conflict. This practice continued throughout the two World Wars, with Britain trading with Germany during World War I and II, and India and Pakistan conducting trade during their conflicts in Kashmir and 1965.
Grinberg's work reveals that trade relationships do not necessarily prevent hostilities from unfolding. Instead, states should look for different levers to deter war when their assumptions about the world are not correct. States often trade with their enemies to boost their own economies and avoid supplying enemies with useful goods in the near term.
However, not all goods are traded equally. States might export products that take a long time for adversaries to convert into military use, whereas products that can quickly convert into military use are not traded. The trade is permitted if it does not help the enemy win the war and if ending it would damage the state's long-term economic security.
Scholars in the field have praised Grinberg's book as a masterful contribution to our understanding of how states manage trade-offs across economics and security in foreign policy. Grinberg herself believes she has only just begun to scratch the surface with her book on wartime trade.
In her second book project, Grinberg is focusing on understanding why states go to war unprepared and think their wars will end quickly. This work promises to continue the engaging and thought-provoking exploration of the interplay between war, economics, and foreign policy.
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