Data-Driven Strategies and Gut Feelings: Why "Moneyball" Offers Insights for the Military on Evidence-Based Decision Making
The US Army is in the midst of a significant transformation, moving towards a data-rich system for optimization and decision-making. However, there are concerns that this shift may lead to a neglect of the instincts and experiences of its decision-makers.
In a people-driven service such as the Army, finding a similar metric to justify funding from Congress can be challenging. Success in modern conflicts, such as Operation Enduring Freedom, Vietnam, and World War II, is often measured over a longer timescale. This means that the Army must be capable of winning long, drawn-out conflicts, not just short, violent ones.
Incorporating new technology and skill sets can improve a staff's ability to digest data and convert it into useful information. Commanders need this information to better understand and visualize what is happening, aiding in better decision-making. However, problems emerge when data does the decision-making itself. It is essential that data provides recommendations that are combined with experience.
The key person connecting the US Army with data science concepts, data collection, and forecasting calculations is Major Garrett Chandler, an Army logistician. A recent graduate of the School of Advanced Military Studies, Major Chandler will be assigned to the 4th Infantry Division at Fort Carson, Colorado. Major Chandler previously served as the course director for the Army's Supply Chain Management and Master Logistician courses at Fort Lee, Virginia.
Major Chandler's education includes a master's degree in supply chain management from Virginia Commonwealth University and a graduate certificate in business analytics from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. His expertise will undoubtedly prove valuable in the Army's data-driven transformation.
The Army needs strategic- and operational-level commanders and staffs that embrace analytics to reduce friction and prevent catastrophic long-term failure. At the same time, it's important for the Army to trust tactical commanders and staffs to rely on their instincts honed by years of training, education, and real-world experience.
Balancing short-term and long-term success requires the Army to build a team that embraces analytics but also knows when to go against the book. The 2002 Oakland Athletics baseball team, for example, used data analytics to optimize their roster, but failed to win a World Series since 1989. The Athletics' story serves as a reminder that while data can improve efficiency and increase the probability of victory, it is not a guarantee of success.
The US Army is transitioning to a data-rich system, but it must remember that the human element is just as crucial. The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not reflect the official position of the United States Military Academy, Department of the Army, or Department of Defense.
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