Dissenting voices apprehend Trump may capitalize on a questionable DOE report to promote a pro-coal policy
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has recently issued a report that is causing a stir in the energy sector. The report, which was spurred by an executive order as part of President Donald Trump's "Beautiful Clean Coal" policy, is intended to establish a narrative that the U.S. power system faces imminent reliability risks due to solar and wind power. However, experts argue that the report is designed to push a certain agenda and severely undercounts new generation capacity expected to be added to U.S. grids through 2030.
The DOE's report relies on data from the 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment report by the North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC). It estimates only 209 GW of new generation expected to be added to the grid by 2030, with only 22 GW classified as "firm." However, NERC's report includes nearly 400 GW of likely additions to the U.S. grid by 2030, of which roughly 50 GW are fossil-fueled power plants. The main discrepancy between the two reports appears to be the DOE's decision to use only a subset of data on the generation being planned across the country.
The new generation capacity not accounted for by the DOE's report includes large amounts of renewables and batteries. A significant portion of this unaccounted capacity consists of gas-fired plants, which while not yet at "shovel-ready" status, form a part of utilities and regulators' grid reliability considerations and are likely to be built. The report also overlooks power plants that state-regulated utilities are seeking permission to build to meet rapidly growing demand for power.
The Trump administration intends to use federal government authority to prevent fossil-fueled power plants from closing, as evident by the DOE's move to order the J.H. Campbell coal plant in Michigan and the Eddystone oil- and gas-burning plant in Pennsylvania to stay open. The report further claims that power outages could increase a hundredfold across the country by 2030, a projection that raises concerns about the reliability of the power system.
It's important to note that the coordination and evaluation of power plant planning in the United States for the period 2027 to 2030 involves multiple organizations such as federal and regional grid operators (e.g., the North American Electric Reliability Corporation - NERC), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and various state regulatory commissions. These entities consider both existing and planned power plants in their assessments to maintain a secure power supply.
In conclusion, the DOE's report has sparked controversy due to its underestimation of new generation capacity expected to be added to U.S. grids. While the report aims to emphasize potential reliability risks, experts argue that it overlooks significant amounts of new capacity, particularly from renewables and gas-fired plants, which are crucial to maintaining a secure power supply in the coming years.
