Distrust in both major parties during coalition negotiations According to Scholar
The political landscape in Thailand is abuzz with activity as the country gears up for a new government, with the 2026 Budget Bill set to be implemented in late September. The incoming government, a coalition between the Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties, is predicted to have a brief tenure due to a slight majority in parliament.
The Pheu Thai Party, which lost public confidence due to its handling of the Thai-Cambodian border conflict and its inability to deliver on many of its flagship policies, has agreed to certain conditions to form a government after the dismissal of the Paetongtarn Shinawatra administration. These conditions include dissolving parliament within four months and a public referendum on amending the constitution.
The opposition People's Party, on the other hand, has pledged support for Bhumjaithai's leader Anutin Charnvirakul as prime minister. The Pheu Thai Party has applied for royal approval to dissolve parliament to trigger new elections following the ousting of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. The exact timing of the parliamentary dissolution depends on legal procedures but is pursued imminently as the current transition cabinet led by interim premier Phumtham Wechayachai governs until a new coalition forms or elections occur.
In the midst of these political maneuvers, Purawich Watanasukh, a lecturer at Thammasat University's Faculty of Political Science, has expressed little faith in either the Pheu Thai Party or Bhumjaithai Party. He suggests that the pledges made by these parties may be subject to change once they are in office, and warns that the promises made may not be kept.
The new government may use this short term to control government mechanisms beneficial for future elections. Additionally, this bill will allow the government to disburse funds for policies intended to increase their popularity. Mr. Purawich predicts that both parties will implement populist policies to boost their popularity, recognizing their limited time in office.
The People's Party has consistently pursued a constitutional amendment, while the Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties have shown a lack of political will in this regard. The Move Forward Party, the predecessor of the People's Party, faced collapsed negotiations in 2023, leaving the Pheu Thai Party to form a government instead.
The Pheu Thai Party's key leaders Sorawong Thienthong and Jiraporn Sindhuprai will present their plans to the opposition People's Party (PP) to form a coalition government, aiming to prevent the Bhumjaithai Party from leading government formation. The Pheu Thai Party's agreement to dissolve parliament within four months or possibly earlier depending on court proceedings is a significant concession to the People's Party.
The political negotiations are part of ongoing efforts to form a new government, and the stakes are high. The outcome of these negotiations will shape the future of Thailand's political landscape for years to come.
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