Emerging Influence and Varied Diplomatic Positioning of India on the Global Stage
In the dynamic world of international politics, India, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is navigating a complex web of relationships as it responds to shifting alliances and geopolitical realignments.
The Indian government, elected for the first time in 2014 after the BJP’s landslide victory in the general election, is now grappling with the implications of a weakened Russia, which faces further sanctions and is likely to become increasingly dependent on China. This development could potentially diminish Russia's role as a continental counterweight, causing concern in New Delhi.
The Modi government's disappointment with the U.S. response to the April-May 2025 India-Pakistan skirmishes is another factor shaping India's foreign policy. A less engaged America or one that equates India and Pakistan risks reviving Cold War-era skepticism of the U.S. within India.
India's strategic autonomy doctrine, a cornerstone of its foreign policy, is likely to be the response to an unpredictable American presidency and an aggressive China. This strategy, which emphasises independence and self-reliance, could lead to a strengthening of ties with other middle powers to shield itself from the turbulence of a volatile global order.
However, the willingness and capacity of these middle powers to either counterbalance or support Beijing will depend on their interests, which may or may not align with India's. This complex interplay of national interests could present a significant challenge.
India's economy, heavily reliant on global partners for trade, access to energy, markets, technology, and capital, is another critical factor. India depends on countries like China for these resources, but a least likely scenario would occur if U.S. actions harm India's economy or signal a retreat from Asia or a turn inward, leading India to revert to its Cold War strategy of hedging its bets in the economic realm.
India is also wary of the U.S. seemingly re-hyphenating India and Pakistan. This move, reminiscent of Cold War-era diplomacy, could potentially undermine India's efforts to assert its regional influence.
Moreover, India's key risk is a territorial dispute with China and China's strategic encirclement. Without sustained American initiative and resolve, the Quad (an informal strategic alliance between the U.S., India, Australia, and Japan) risks becoming a diplomatic formality, returning the Indo-Pacific region to an arena of unmediated rivalry.
In response to these challenges, India is likely to strengthen ties with other middle powers to navigate the complexities of the global order. However, the path forward is fraught with uncertainties, and India's foreign policy will continue to evolve as it navigates this intricate web of relationships.
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