EU Set to Make Decisions Regarding Georgia's Future
In the heart of the Caucasus region, Georgia finds itself at a crossroads, with its political landscape and relations with the European Union (EU) under scrutiny.
The Georgian Prime Minister, Irakli Kobakhidze, has been met with international criticism following his response to the threat of visa liberalization suspension. His open mockery towards the potential suspension has raised concerns about the country's commitment to democratic reforms.
The EU's threat comes after Georgia's fourth term in office, won by the Georgian Dream party last year, was marred by allegations of election manipulation. The party's relative success, however, rests on several factors, none of which are immutable.
The suspension of visa liberalization, which has allowed half a million Georgians to enjoy visa-free travel to the EU since 2017, could be a mistake, according to some experts. They argue that it is an outdated policy tool designed for a different kind of government in different times.
The country that has taken the toughest measures against Georgian Dream is the United Kingdom. The EU, too, has expressed concerns over the Georgian Dream's move towards full authoritarianism and deliberate sabotage of Georgia's EU accession track.
Polls show that Georgian voters overwhelmingly aspire to join the EU and care above all about unemployment and poverty. The EU offered Georgia candidate country status in 2023, with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stating the offer was to honor "the genuine aspirations of the overwhelming majority of its citizens to join the European Union."
However, Brussels has not yet come up with a significant response to Georgia's deteriorating democracy. France and Germany, where a lot of Georgian Dream officials hold assets, need to set the tone for EU member states.
The foreign-influence law in Georgia is starting to curtail the activities of the country's nongovernmental sector. The authorities are using Chinese facial-recognition technology to identify demonstrators and impose heavy fines. Around sixty people, including opposition politicians, street demonstrators, and an independent newspaper editor, are currently in jail, essentially as political prisoners.
The Georgian government's authoritarian project stands on flimsy foundations. The downsides of Georgia's economic growth, caused by an influx of Russian cash and a real-estate boom, will only grow over time. There are big question marks over whether a purported deal for a Chinese state-owned company to develop a deepwater port at Anaklia on the Black Sea will materialize.
The EU still has a strong hand to play, as Georgian Dream is isolating itself. The de facto leader of the Georgian Dream party responsible for the current developments in Georgia is billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili. Threatening the small group of people around him could be the key to effecting change.
As Georgia navigates these challenging times, the future of its democracy and its relationship with the EU hang in the balance. The EU's response and the actions of Georgia's political leaders will play a crucial role in shaping the country's future.
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