Europe advocates for security promises in Ukraine, but Russia resists: INSIGHT
In recent developments, discussions surrounding security guarantees for Ukraine have gained momentum. The proposed guarantees, if implemented, would involve a coalition of willing countries, including the United States, European Union members, and potentially other nations, such as Italy, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is currently in Ukraine to outline a framework for these security guarantees, aiming to help Kyiv fend off any potential future attacks from Russia. Retired Adm. James Foggo has stated that the U.S. and its allies would seek a "negotiated solution" for a joint military plan.
However, the details of the security arrangements, such as the number of troops and the countries involved, have not been specified yet. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said it is "still too early" to reveal which countries would contribute troops, intelligence, or resources to the security guarantees.
The security arrangement is intended to serve as a backstop to ensure that when the time comes for a bilateral meeting with Putin, Ukraine will have the support of its friends. According to Rutte, the security guarantees would ensure that Russia will uphold any deal and will never attempt to take any more territory in Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, however, stated that talks about a security guarantee for Ukraine must involve Moscow itself, implying a Russian veto over defenses for Ukraine. Retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, the U.S. special envoy to Ukraine, dismissed these statements, calling them "just noise."
The policy decisions regarding uniform forces are up to the civilian leaders of the countries involved. The support for security guarantees is considered "political" at this point, and not a concrete plan. Trump has ruled out deploying U.S. ground troops and opposes Ukraine's bid to join NATO, but he has said the U.S. "would help them ... by air."
The security guarantees would come after a peace deal or "long-term ceasefire." The generating forces for the security arrangement can be done quickly once there's a policy decision, according to Foggo. Rose Gottemoeller, former NATO deputy secretary-general, stated that the structure of the potential security guarantee might resemble Article 5, but it's a matter for negotiation.
European leaders have also discussed an "Article 5-like" security guarantee for Ukraine, which would be a coalition of willing countries that would promise to back Ukraine's security. NATO defense chiefs have been discussing the path forward for Ukraine security guarantees.
As the negotiations continue, the key questions remain: the details of how many troops would serve in Ukraine and which countries would send them. The security arrangement, if successful, would provide leverage for Zelenskyy to sell the deal to his people and serve as a deterrent against any future Russian aggression.
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