Forecast for Alabama vs Florida State Matchup, Betting Line & Popular Wagering Tendencies in 2025
In the highly anticipated Week 1 matchup of the college football season, the Florida State Seminoles will square off against the Alabama Crimson Tide on August 30th, with kickoff scheduled for 3:30 ET at Doak Campbell Stadium.
The Alabama Crimson Tide, currently 13.5-point favourites, come into the game with an impressive ATS record in Week 1 games, boasting a 9-0 record in their last nine appearances. Alabama finished the 2024 season with a 9-4 SU record and a 7-5 ATS record, and their defence remained one of the SEC's best, holding opponents to under 25 points in eight straight games to close out the year.
For the Seminoles, the upcoming game presents a significant opportunity for head coach Mike Norvell to reinvigorate his squad. To do so, Norvell has turned to former Boston College quarterback Tommy Castellanos, who signed with Florida State as a transfer in 2025.
Castellanos, who struggled in Bill O'Brien's pro-style offense at Boston College, showed promise in the ACC last season, throwing for 18 touchdowns and just five interceptions. However, his PFF grade under pressure in 2024 placed him among the 10th-worst quarterbacks in the FBS.
Florida State's offence will need to be at its best against a formidable Alabama defence, as the total for the game is set at 48.5 points. Despite the challenges, the Seminoles' receiving corps, led by standout receiver Ryan Williams, will aim to make plays and keep the game competitive.
The Seminoles struggled as underdogs last season, finishing with a 1-5-1 ATS record, and this trend continues in their Week 1 matchup, with Florida State being massive 13.5-point underdogs.
On the other side of the ball, Ty Simpson will make his starting debut at quarterback for Alabama, replacing Jalen Milroe, who left for the NFL. Alabama's offence will look to capitalise on the Seminoles' defensive struggles, but they will need to be wary of Florida State's potential upset bid.
According to the college football public betting splits, 92% of moneyline wagers and 77% of spread bets are on Alabama. However, the Seminoles will be looking to defy the odds and make a statement in their season opener against the Crimson Tide.
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