Forecasted Persistence of High Inflation According to Economic Experts' Survey
The ifo Institute, a renowned economic research organisation, has recently conducted a survey involving 1,340 economic experts from 121 countries, shedding light on global inflation expectations for the coming years.
The survey results indicate that inflation expectations have stabilised at a high level, both in the short term and for the coming years. For instance, economists worldwide anticipate persistently high inflation rates for 2025, with an average global rate of 4.0%.
Looking at specific regions, inflation expectations vary significantly. Regional differences are pronounced, with expectations in Western Europe being below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of two percent inflation, while they are significantly higher in Eastern Europe and Asian countries.
Inflation rates in many parts of Africa are expected to be the highest, with some exceeding 20%. The highest inflation rates are expected in countries such as Nigeria, Angola, and South Africa.
In the U.S., economists expect inflation to rise to 3.0% this year and 3.7% next year. The survey results suggest that import tariffs imposed by the U.S. government are the most frequently cited explanation for this anticipated increase.
Inflation expectations for Germany remain stable at 2.4% for 2025, 2.3% for 2026, and 2.3% for 2028.
For 2026, respondents expect an average global inflation rate of 3.9%, and for 2028, they expect an average global inflation rate of 3.7%.
The survey was conducted from June 17, 2025, to July 1, 2025. The survey results also suggest that long-term inflation expectations remain at a relatively high level.
Current trade conflicts and import tariffs are seen as a major driver of inflation by the experts. These factors, along with other economic uncertainties, are expected to shape the global economic landscape in the coming years.
The ifo Institute survey provides valuable insights into global economic trends and helps policymakers, businesses, and investors make informed decisions. The survey results underscore the need for careful consideration of inflation risks and the implementation of appropriate monetary and fiscal policies to maintain economic stability.
