Forecasting the Onset of Indian Monsoon Three Months Ahead by Leveraging Machine Learning Techniques
The TiPES (Tipping Points in the Earth System) project, an interdisciplinary climate science initiative, has made significant strides in improving the forecasting of the Indian summer monsoon. This project, led by Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, is coordinated and led by institutions in Denmark and Germany, and is part of the EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation program with grant agreement number 820970.
The TiPES project focuses on tipping points in the Earth system, and its latest publication in Environmental Research Letters (DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac0acb) demonstrates the potential of accurate seasonal forecasts for the Indian monsoon. Millions of people and natural habitats depend on the precipitation from the Indian summer monsoon, and such forecasts could provide early warnings for farmers and others relying on the monsoon to plan ahead and mitigate the consequences of interannual variabilities.
Climate scientists from PIK Potsdam, Germany have improved a three-month preseasonal forecast using machine learning. The scientists used a shift in temperature balance between two areas to predict the monsoon onset, achieving an accuracy of +/- 4.8 days. This is an improvement compared to earlier attempts using traditional weather prediction models.
The predictions cover the climate changes of the latest decades, using data since 1948. The results indicate that longer seasonal forecasts based on machine learning may help mitigate the consequences of an erratic monsoon system under future global warming.
The TiPES project involves institutions from more than 10 countries, with 18 partner institutions working together. The Indian summer monsoon has been forecasted three months ahead for the last 40 years with the highest precision to date. However, global warming is changing the monsoon system and will increase the variation in precipitation patterns, monsoon onset, and duration in the future.
The possibility of accurate predictions in a world with a much higher global warming has not yet been investigated. Nevertheless, the TiPES project is a significant step towards improving our understanding and prediction of the complex and crucial Indian summer monsoon system.
