Forecasting UK's Upcoming Climate Chaos and Intense Weather Phenomena
Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events in the UK: A Growing Concern
The UK is experiencing a shift in its weather patterns, with climate change playing a significant role in the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events.
Recent modelling suggests that intense summer downpours over southern England could intensify by 36% under an extreme 4-5C temperature rise. This prediction is backed by the observation of overall increases in maximum river flows and flood durations in winter and autumn.
The UK has recently surpassed 40C for the first time in history, and scientists predict that heatwaves - once a rare occurrence - will take place every year, especially in the summer months from May to September, by 2100. The urban heat island effect, where cities are significantly warmer than their surrounding rural areas, is also on the rise. In Manchester, for example, the urban heat island effect increased by about 0.4C between 1990 and 2010.
Temperatures in large cities such as London are 1-3C higher than in rural areas, a trend that is expected to continue. By 2050, one study suggests that 1.2 million more people could be at risk of flash flooding in the UK due to increases in intense summer rainfall.
The UK Climate Projections, operated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) based in Reading, England, indicate a strong drying trend in southern England, especially in summer, under the high greenhouse gas emission pathway. This could lead to an increasing frequency of droughts by 2100 in the UK.
River responses in relation to climate change are predicted to vary across the UK. Peak river flows usually occur in the autumn months in northern and western England, while springtime flows are expected to decrease in southern and eastern England.
Research by the Met Office has found evidence of the link between global warming and changes in temperatures (both heatwaves and cold fronts) as well as heavy rain. Six of the 10 wettest years across the UK have occurred since 1998, with the 10 hottest years since 1884 all occurring after 2002.
The chance of exceeding 40C by 2090 is predicted to be 1 in 15 in a medium emissions scenario and up to almost 1 in 5 under a high emissions scenario. Extreme weather events, including the unprecedented heatwave in July, have heightened concern about the escalating risk of adverse weather in the UK.
It's important to note that almost 83% of Britain's population lives in cities and towns, making the effects of climate change and extreme weather events a critical concern for many.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service, the UK organization responsible for predictions and analyses of the effects of climate change on rainfall, flooding, and coastal storms, continues to monitor these trends and provide insights to help the UK adapt to a changing climate.
