Essential Risks of Poker: Thoughts on Poker as a Strategy Game
Gamblers Larry, David, and Ray: Unveiling the Business Strategies in Poker Sales
Historically, poker has been marketed as either a pure mind sport or gambling—but it doesn't have to be one or the other. The industry oscillates between these extremes, usually as a means to lure new players into the game. However, there are lessons to learn from the top flops in the poker world:
- Poker cannot be merely sold as a strategy game without the element of money. Money plays a significant role in igniting the average spectator's interest.
- On the flip side, poker cannot be solely marketed as a game of pure luck gambling, as I will explain later.
Variance is crucial to the essence of poker. Inept players must have the chance to win, and it's the unpredictability of beating more skilled opponents that entices them to play for money. No sane person would challenge Magnus Carlsen to a chess match for a substantial amount, but recreational players won't hesitate to take on pros, even if they know they have an edge. Efforts to create no-variance or "match poker" have always failed.
Ambassadorship in poker has evolved significantly over the years, and so have the ways to attract new players.
- Traditional sponsorship deals were based on winning big tournaments. Winners were offered compensation as a bonus prize. However, this method had its limitations, as few players enjoyed consistent victories.
- With the industry moving to sponsoring celebrities, the focus was on maintaining public visibility, regardless of the reason for the notability. Players like Rafa Nadal were signed for millions but ended up being just another name on a long list of sponsors.
- The next attempt involved sponsoring content creators. Though they appealed to existing customers, their primary function was more audience retention than acquisition.
- The rise of poker solvers brought poker closer to chess, making it easier to market poker as a mind sport. The prevalence of strategy still confused even the best players, but solvers have now clarified the optimal plays for every situation.
- As a result, the line between 'recreational' and professional poker players has become increasingly blurred. Recreational players no longer aspire to be pros but can still win with the right study and analysis tools.
Selling poker as a strategy game has proven to be a powerful driving force in market activity. Content related to strategy attracts new players, much like chess, not just through potential prizes but also the puzzle aspect.
I recently spoke about these topics at the Edge Expo in Dublin and a corporate event. In these talks, I introduced three main poker player types, which I call Larry, David, and Ray.
- Larry: This is the whale who usually got into poker through other forms of gambling and enjoys the social aspect. Larry is independent and has no interest in the strategy side of poker. He is pegged as a high-value customer based on his disposable income. Unfortunately, Larry has several drawbacks:
- He may quit if he reaches a point where he no longer wants to lose anymore.
- He can be unpleasant, causing potential harm to the industry's reputation.
- Online poker operators have to deal with a high transaction cost associated with his erratic deposit-withdraw patterns.
- David: This is the professional poker player who was once courted by sites eager to secure his playing patronage through preferential rakeback deals and other VIP perks. However, around eight years ago, the tide changed, and sites started resenting pro players because they compete for the winning share in the poker ecosystem.
- Ray: Ray is the student who plays poker primarily for the mental challenge and enjoys self-improvement. Ray has steady income outside of poker and provides the most potential value for the industry due to his strategic understanding, study habits, and willingness to play with a modest loss.
The industry could attract and retain more Rays by providing quality educational resources, training, and tools to help players improve their skills and gameplay. By focusing on Ray, the industry can develop a more dedicated, responsible, and long-term player base—a highly valuable customer segment that can generate substantial revenues without causing many problems for the operators.
- The misconception of branding poker solely as a game of luck dismisses the crucial role of strategy, which resembles the evolution of chess, thanks to the advent of poker solvers.
- The focus on attracting Larry, the high-value customer who enjoys the social aspect of gambling, has presented challenges for the industry, such as erratic deposit-withdraw patterns and potential harm to the reputation.
- Emphasizing poker as a strategy game, like in content related to strategy that attracts new players, can help the industry cultivate a more dedicated and long-term player base, as exemplified by 'Ray,' the strategic player who values self-improvement.
