Germany's Federal Statistical Office facing apparent disregard, as highlighted in two latest instances
In a significant move, the German Federal Statistical Office (Statistisches Bundesamt) has changed the method for calculating the at-risk-of-poverty rate in Germany. The new approach now orientates the risk towards the median income of the respective federal state.
This shift is intended to provide a more differentiated consideration, moving away from a less informative statistical average. However, this decision has sparked controversy among poverty researchers who argue that the approach of the Federal Statistical Office is "inconceivably unscientific" and borders on "arbitrary bureaucratic arbitrariness." They have demanded that the calculation continue to be based on MZ-Kern.
The Federal Statistical Office has transparently informed its users about the change and maintains that the smaller sample size of MZ-SILC, the new method used, means that analyses of at-risk-of-poverty rates can only be done with greater uncertainty based on socio-economic characteristics.
Meanwhile, the Federal Statistical Office has also sought to secure its independence for the future by pursuing the Rechnungshof (Court of Auditors) status. This move follows the US President's action towards the BLS, where the head of the bureau was fired due to dissatisfaction with employment data.
The Federal Statistical Office still publishes comprehensive, regionally and socio-demographically detailed at-risk-of-poverty rates, but with a delay of two to three years. This delay has been a point of contention, with some calling for the office to be given a legal status similar to that of the Federal Court of Audit to secure independence for the future.
The debate surrounding data independence and the accuracy of statistical calculations has also been fuelled by the "Unstatistic of the Month" initiative. This initiative questions both recently published numbers and their interpretations, with the work available online and on Twitter at @unstatistik.
In a related development, the second Unstatistic book, "Green drives SUVs and jogging makes you immortal - About risks and side effects of unstatistics," was awarded the "getAbstract International Book Award 2023" in the Business Impact category. The book advocates for comprehensive promotion of data competencies through the "Data Literacy Charter."
Despite the accusations of "unscientific" or "restriction of scientific freedom" against the Federal Statistical Office, it is important to note that the office still publishes an "official" poverty risk rate for good reason, with all other data remaining available for research. Researchers can apply for access to the data from MZ-Kern and conduct their own analyses.
The media entrepreneur Gabor Steingart accused the Federal Statistical Office of Germany of making a mistake in calculating the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, the accusation has been refuted, and the previous calculations of the at-risk-of-poverty rate have been archived by the Federal Statistical Office.
In conclusion, the changes in the method for calculating the at-risk-of-poverty rate in Germany and the subsequent debate surrounding data independence serve as a reminder of the importance of accurate and transparent statistical calculations. The Federal Statistical Office continues to strive for independence and transparency in its work.
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