Imminent verdict for Thai Prime Minister 'Ung Ing' Paetongtarn
The Constitutional Court is set to decide on the future of suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn "Ung Ing" Shinawatra on Friday. The case arose after a leaked audio recording of her conversation with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen was made public, and a group of senators submitted a petition to the Senate Speaker, requesting that the matter be referred to the Constitutional Court.
If the court finds a serious breach of ethical standards by Ms. Paetongtarn, she could be deemed ineligible to continue in office, effectively bringing her premiership to an end. The controversy continues to erode confidence in her leadership and poses a threat that could destabilize her government.
Many Thais remain unsettled by remarks attributed to her in the audio clip, in which the Thai military was cast as an adversary. Ms. Paetongtarn is accused of breaching the standards required of ministers under Section 160 of the charter.
If Ms. Paetongtarn survives the legal challenge, she is expected to remain in office for another four months. However, she is likely to face fierce censure debates aimed at undermining her administration. If the court rules in her favour, she may push key policies to claim concrete achievements during her remaining time in office.
The court was asked to rule whether her conversation with Hun Sen constituted a serious breach of ethical standards expected of a prime minister. Terms like "serious ethical misconduct" lack precise definitions and are subject to the Constitutional Court's interpretation.
If the court decides that Ms. Paetongtarn lacks the necessary qualifications, the entire cabinet would be deemed to have vacated office. In a caretaker capacity, the current cabinet would continue to function until a new one is formed, with Phumtham Wechayachai resuming his role as caretaker prime minister.
If Ms. Paetongtarn is removed from office, potential candidates for the office of Prime Minister include Chaikasem Nitisiri from Pheu Thai, Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, Jurin Laksanawisit, and Anutin Charnvirakul, chairman of the Bhumjaithai Party. If Anutin Charnvirakul were to succeed Ms. Paetongtarn, it would mark a significant shift in Thai politics.
Political analysts are divided on Ms. Paetongtarn's chances of surviving the ruling. While some, like Stithorn Thananithichot, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, believe that Ms. Paetongtarn and her team are confident she will not be removed from office, others, like Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Institute of Political and Policy Analysis, predict that she is unlikely to survive the ruling.
A recent Nida Poll shows public approval of the Pheu Thai-led government sliding steadily since the release of the audio clip. The outcome of the Constitutional Court's ruling could have significant implications for Thai politics and the direction of the country.
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