Impact of Precision Airstrikes: Insights from Two Decade-Long Drone Combat Operations
In the last two decades, the United States has been engaged in a targeted strike campaign against terrorist threats, primarily in Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia. This campaign, often conducted through the use of drones, has been a subject of much debate.
Research conducted by various scholars has provided insights into the effectiveness and implications of these operations. One of the key concerns is the potential impact on local communities. Opposition to drone strikes can impair the effectiveness of counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operations. This is due to a reduction in local willingness to provide information and a undermining of the perceived legitimacy of partner governments.
However, it's important to note that the best available data refutes the claim that drone strikes tend to kill more civilians than intended targets. In 2013, the United States adopted targeting standards that have since reduced civilian casualties.
Studies in Pakistan, for instance, suggest that strikes can have local effects by reducing the number of terrorist attacks and fatalities for one to four weeks in locations where strikes occur. Qualitative evidence indicates that these operations significantly weakened the top al-Qaeda leadership, known as al-Qaeda core (AQC).
However, it's crucial to consider that continued targeting of top al-Qaeda leadership may not appreciably reduce the risk of attacks in the United States and the West. Today, al-Qaeda's leadership is more dispersed and has fewer resources to encourage affiliates to attack the far enemy.
Minimizing civilian casualties requires more than just precision in strikes. It necessitates collecting accurate data on casualties, aggregating this data to identify root causes of casualties, disseminating lessons across all US entities involved that use force, and revising operations in ways that incorporate these lessons.
Research consistently finds strong local opposition to drone strikes in the areas where they occur. However, it's worth noting that this opposition does not necessarily translate into greater support for terrorist groups and increases in terrorist recruitment.
As the United States resets its counterterrorism policy after withdrawing from Afghanistan, it would do well to study the lessons of the last two decades of drone warfare. If strikes are to be used in Afghanistan, they will need to be complemented by extensive other counterterrorism measures.
Moreover, research suggests that initiatives like local governance and security reforms, and the creation of meaningful economic opportunities, in order to lessen the appeal of extremism, seem plausible. However, there has been little rigorous research isolating their effect. Without efforts to analyze and address the underlying causes of extremism, the most that strikes may accomplish on the local level is to "mow the grass."
If the United States eventually concludes that it is no longer in an armed conflict with al-Qaeda, using strikes in this way could be controversial. Some may see it as inconsistent with the international law requirement that force be used only to prevent an imminent attack.
In conclusion, the use of drone strikes in counterterrorism operations presents complex challenges and opportunities. It's essential for the United States to institutionalize measures that minimize civilian casualties, study the lessons of past operations, and consider a comprehensive approach that includes counterterrorism measures and efforts to address the root causes of extremism.
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