In 2026, at least 1.4 billion rubles in tax revenues from advertising will not be collected by the Russian budget.
In Russia, a significant change is on the horizon as amendments come into force on September 1, 2025, prohibiting the distribution of advertising on prohibited resources, including social networks. This move is expected to have a profound impact on various sectors, from bloggers and advertising agencies to small and medium-sized businesses.
The Association of Bloggers and Agencies (ABA) and Didenok Team, a leading player in the industry, have conducted a study predicting losses of at least 1.4 billion rubles to the Russian Federation's budget due to the ban on certain types of advertising activities in 2026. The study also suggests a potential chain reaction, including a collapse in the incomes of bloggers and agencies, an increase in the shadow turnover, a decrease in the revenue of small and medium-sized businesses, overheating of alternative social networks, and a subsequent increase in advertising costs with a decrease in its effectiveness.
The demand for advertising from Russian bloggers has already decreased by 15-25% over the first six months of this year. In 2024, Instagram, which was banned in Russia and owned by Meta, recognized as extremist, accounted for 7% to 10% of the entire influencer marketing market. This decrease in demand could lead to significant tax losses for the Russian government.
Analysts estimate that the budget losses from the cessation of advertising activities solely on Instagram for the whole of 2025 will be at least 600 million rubles. Moreover, the Russian Federation's budget will lose at least 395 million rubles in tax revenues from advertising for the remaining four months of 2025.
Both advertisers and advertising distributors face fines for violating the new requirements. From September 1, 2025, administrative measures may be applied to violators who distribute advertising on prohibited information resources, according to part 1 of article 14.3 of the Code of Administrative Offenses of the Russian Federation (RF CoA).
The Federal Antimonopoly Service of Russia (FAS) is responsible for enforcing the new requirements. It has advised to transfer advertising activity to Russian internet resources. However, no new information has been provided about which advertising agency is currently working with the Association of Bloggers and Agencies to study the impact of the ban on certain advertising activities on the Russian Federation's budget in 2026.
It's important to note that "Business Quarter", the only printed magazine in the ranking, will not be affected by these changes as it focuses exclusively on business information. The "Business Quarter" projects have consistently held high positions in the top-25 Ural media rankings by "Medialogy" for the past five years.
As we approach September 2025, it will be interesting to see how the Russian market adapts to these changes and what the long-term effects will be.
