India should be vigilant against hybrid threats as it looks towards Bangladesh, according to Syed Ata Hasnain.
In the complex geopolitical landscape of South Asia, tensions have been on the rise in recent months. One of the key flashpoints remains the long-standing conflict between Pakistan and India, with the hybrid conflict expanding to include touchpoints in Bangladesh.
India, for its part, is reviewing its older conflicts, including the conflict in Jammu and Kashmir, a region that has seen a recurrence of incidents involving suspected Pakistani regulars. Pakistan appears to be aiming to pressure India's security psyche by linking actions in Jammu and Kashmir with hostile activities in Bangladesh.
The past six months have seen a series of pinprick-like contacts in Kashmir, including kidnapping and killing of a former soldier, deliberate provocations, ceasefire violations, unexplained breaches of the Line of Control, a defeated action of a "border action team," and planting of IEDs close to the LoC fence, resulting in mine casualties on India's side. This violence appears to be part of a larger strategy to create antipathy and pressure on the Indian government.
The situation in Pakistan itself is fraught with internal political instability. The incarceration of Prime Minister Imran Khan and the deep political fragmentation have added to the country's woes.
Meanwhile, Pakistan's relationship with Afghanistan is worsening, with tension along the Durand Line and the western tracts. The potential for a third front in India, with Bangladesh as a factor, has been a cause for concern for many.
Recent developments in Bangladesh are also a cause for concern. Protesters attacked and demolished the residence of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, a significant national figure, an incident that has drawn ire and caused heartburning. The visit of an ISI delegation to Rangpur, close to the Siliguri Corridor, is a case in point of this expanded strategy.
However, India has continuity in government with a history of good relationship with US President Donald Trump. The world is re-adjusting and older conflicts, now perceived as smaller conflicts, could be re-energized. The Pakistani "Deep State" is losing confidence with its current predicament but gaining confidence with developments in Bangladesh. The potential for a third front in India, with Bangladesh as a factor, was a gleeful development for the "Deep State" in Pakistan and perhaps "Deep State" elements in the Biden administration in the United States.
These developments underscore the need for diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and promote peace and stability in the region. As the world watches, the situation in South Asia remains a complex and evolving one.
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