Investigation: Does the crime rate in cities governed by Democrats in the United States exceed the national average?
In a groundbreaking study published in January 2025, researchers from Harvard, University of Washington Tacoma, University of Pittsburgh, and George Washington University delved into the relationship between a city's mayor's political affiliation and crime rates. The study, spanning nearly three decades and analysing data from 400 medium and large US cities, concluded that the political affiliation of mayors has little impact on crime rates and policing.
The study found that in 2024, out of the 100 largest cities in the US, 65 were led by mayors affiliated with the Democratic Party, and 23 were led by Republican-affiliated mayors. Comparing the crime rates of individual cities from one year to another showed a lot of fluctuation rather than a clear trend, suggesting that crime rates are not influenced by a mayor's party affiliation.
The FBI discourages using its data to compile rankings of cities and counties as a way of measuring law enforcement effectiveness. However, the latest FBI report estimates that national violent crime decreased by an estimated 4.5% in 2024 compared to 2023 estimates. Murder and non-negligent manslaughter dropped by nearly 15% compared to the previous year.
Crime rates are influenced by a complex mix of socioeconomic, geographic, and cultural factors. For instance, larger cities tend to report higher crime rates than rural areas. Within a city itself, there can be a huge variation in crime. Memphis, Tennessee, and El Paso, Texas, both run by Democrat-affiliated mayors, are similar in size, but the violent crime rate of Memphis is about ten times higher than that of El Paso.
The study also found no detectable impact on police staffing, expenditures on criminal justice, crime rates, or arrest rates when a Democrat rather than a Republican was elected as mayor. This finding contradicts the assertion made by some, including US President Donald Trump, that cities governed by Democrats experience higher crime rates. Data and long-term research do not support this claim.
The White House has posted on social media that Democrat-run cities are plagued with crime. However, a California judge later ruled Trump's deployment of military forces against protesters in Los Angeles as illegal. Trump has also suggested deploying the National Guard to cities facing high crime, but his actions in this regard have been controversial.
It is important to note that the city with a democratic mayor in 2024 that had the lowest crime rate among the top 100 largest cities in the United States is not explicitly stated in the provided search results.
The study's findings underscore the need for a nuanced understanding of crime and its causes. It suggests that while a mayor's political affiliation may not be a decisive factor in crime rates, other factors such as socioeconomic conditions, community engagement, and effective policing strategies are crucial.
All data and code behind this analysis can be found in a specific Github Repository, ensuring transparency and replicability of the study's findings. The study serves as a valuable resource for policymakers, law enforcement agencies, and researchers seeking to understand and address crime in US cities.
Read also:
- Lu Shiow-yen's Challenging Position as Chair of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Under Scrutiny in Donovan's Analysis
- Central Taiwan Discourse: Disputed Native History Claims by PRC
- Jaipur's Amer Fort experiences a 200-foot section collapse during heavy rainfall, but fortunately, no casualties are reported.
- School mandates for vaccinations in Florida are being terminated, opening a question about whether other states will adopt a similar approach.
