Lessons Learned in the Initial Stages of Drone Combat in Ukraine
In the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, drones have emerged as a significant factor, transforming the battlefield and reshaping the way wars are fought.
Drones have proven to be a major propaganda win for Ukraine, providing vivid images and video of Ukrainian strikes, offering the world a unique perspective on the conflict. The successes achieved by Ukrainian drones, particularly the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB-2, have been substantial. These unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are reported to have accounted for almost half of Russia's surface-to-air missiles that have been destroyed and played a crucial role in the sinking of the Moskva, the flagship in Russia's Black Sea Fleet.
The war has also seen a significant increase in the use and production of drones, notably by Russia, which currently produces around 170 drones per day, including Shahed and fake drones. Russia's ambitious plans aim to increase this production to 190 per day by the end of 2025. This massive drone production and use, including over 800 drones in a single attack, underscore the growing relevance of drones in modern warfare against advanced military powers. They enable large-scale, strategic attacks on infrastructure like energy grids while potentially minimizing manned losses.
On the Ukrainian side, there are plans to deploy 15,000 ground-based robotic platforms to compensate for fewer mobilization resources and reduce human casualties, signifying a strategic shift towards unmanned systems in combat operations.
However, technology and concepts alone aren't enough to ensure success in drone warfare. Targets especially vulnerable to drones must be identified to maximise their effectiveness, and the relevance and ways in which drone warfare are relevant to conflict with a peer or near-peer adversary are still unclear.
Drones have been used in a wide variety of roles, including carrying out strikes, guiding artillery, and recording video for information operations. They have also aided intelligence and reconnaissance, such as guiding Ukrainian artillery strikes. The conflict offers at least seven initial lessons that should influence the thinking of US planners, policymakers, and military leaders about the future of the United States' own drone capabilities.
Moreover, even simple drones can pose real threats to air assets, as demonstrated by the incident in which a hobbyist drone struck a police helicopter in Los Angeles. Drones are expanding the information environment, providing unprecedented awareness of the Ukraine conflict to the Ukrainian military, Ukrainian civilians, and global observers.
The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has shown that significant military capability can be achieved at relatively low cost, even for countries with relatively low defense spending, such as Ukraine and Azerbaijan. The United States and allied nations should consider deploying and using drones in wolf pack tactics to exploit vulnerabilities in adversary defenses. Drones offer the potential for creating aerial minefields, as demonstrated by the Russian Lancet-3 loitering munition.
However, air superiority concepts may need to be adjusted to account for the challenges posed by drones, which can be difficult to identify, prevent, and counter. As drone technology continues to evolve, it is crucial for military strategists to stay informed and adapt their strategies accordingly.
In conclusion, the Ukraine-Russia conflict has highlighted the growing importance of drone technology and drone warfare in modern warfare. Any military that hopes to achieve its battlefield objectives needs to take drones into account. The conflict serves as a valuable lesson for military strategists around the world, emphasising the need for a comprehensive understanding of drone capabilities and the strategies required to counter them.
