Middle Eastern regions opt for a gradual reduction instead of complete elimination in oil production and political strategies.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia are making significant strides in renewable energy, causing a stir at the ongoing UN climate conference, COP28, in Dubai. This shift towards sustainability, driven by the need for economic diversification and maintaining global energy hub status, has sparked a global debate about the role of fossil fuels in the transition.
During a discussion with Mary Robinson, former president of Ireland and UN climate envoy, COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber made comments that have caused controversy. Al Jaber supports a "phase-down or phase-out" of fossil fuel, but there is a difference between these two terms, he clarified. The controversy hinges on this distinction, with advanced economies like Europe taking a more urgent and ideological approach, and the Middle East taking a more pragmatic and gradual approach.
The UAE aims to have 100% of its public transport electrified by 2030, and it already boasts the world's largest single-site solar power plant, the Al Dhafra Solar Power Project, with a capacity of 2,580 MW. The UAE also aims to generate 25% of its energy from renewables by 2025 and 45% by 2050, investing $160 million in clean energy projects.
Saudi Arabia, too, is making ambitious renewable energy commitments. It aims to generate 50% of its electricity from renewables by 2030 and 100% by 2060, investing $1 trillion in renewable energy and energy efficiency to reach net-zero by 2060. Saudi Arabia also plans to power Neom, a futuristic megacity, entirely by renewables.
However, these nations are not abandoning their fossil fuel industries entirely. For oil-rich countries in the Middle East, the choice between fossil fuels and renewable energy is not either/or, but and/and - at least until the renewable options become as profitable as their current business model. This pragmatic approach has been met with criticism from some quarters, particularly from Europe, where countries like Germany are investing in renewable energy expansion while simultaneously continuing to exploit oil and natural gas reserves and increasing military expenditure.
The need for a balanced approach was echoed by Al Jaber, who responded to criticism by saying, "There is no science out there that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what's going to achieve 1.5°C." UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, on the other hand, presented the consensus view that "The science is clear. The 1.5°C limit is only possible if we ultimately stop burning all fossil fuels."
The Middle East is ideally suited for solar power, with its abundant sunlight and vast desert landscapes. By leveraging this resource, these nations are using their oil wealth to catch up and overtake the sustainability efforts of other markets. The strategy in the Middle East will be to phase down the exploitation of oil and gas over as long as it remains economically relevant, not to phase it out as soon as possible.
This debate underscores the complexity of the transition towards a sustainable future. While the urgency to act is clear, the path forward is not always straightforward, especially for oil-rich nations like the UAE and Saudi Arabia. As COP28 continues, these discussions will undoubtedly shape the global response to climate change in the coming years.
