Music streaming rates to increase approximately every year and a half to three years, allegedly forecasted in a financial report, as global music income is predicted to double from current levels to reach $200 billion within the next ten years.
In a groundbreaking report titled "Music In The Air Report 2025", Goldman Sachs has forecasted a significant growth in the music industry over the next ten years. The report suggests that the global music revenue, currently standing at around $100 billion, is set to double, reaching an impressive $200 billion by 2035.
One of the key drivers of this growth is the increasing demand for live music, particularly among millennials and Generation Z. Goldman Sachs predicts a 7.2% growth rate in live music revenue between now and the end of the decade. This growth is underpinned by the rising demand for live experiences, with the average ticket price for a concert in one of the top 100 worldwide tours increasing from $91 in 2019 to $136 in 2024.
While the average US consumer spends $69 a month on video streaming, they only spend $14 on music. However, the report concurs that monetizing 'superfans' better could significantly boost the industry's revenues. These 'superfans' are identified as individuals who spend more on live music and physical music compared to the average consumer. The average US 'superfan' spends $113 on live music and $68 on physical music per month, compared to $39 and $19 among 'average' consumers.
The report suggests that there is significant potential growth in targeting these 'superfans', who are willing to pay more for premium audio quality, early access to merchandise, and exclusive content. Goldman Sachs's analysts believe there will be more regular increases in music streaming prices, mirroring the trend seen in video streaming prices, which have been rising by 15% nearly every two years for the past decade.
Emerging markets are also expected to play a significant role in this growth. Emerging markets contributed 60% of new music streaming subscribers in 2024, and streaming penetration in these markets is estimated to rise from 8% to 14% in a decade. However, music streamers may have to work harder to turn listeners into paying subscribers in these markets.
The report highlights the overall growth in live music, streaming, and monetization opportunities driven by platforms like Spotify, Apple Music, and Amazon Music, as well as technological advancements like 5G. Goldman Sachs's predictions indicate that live music revenue growth is primarily driven by demand from millennials and Gen Z.
The report also suggests that better monetizing 'superfans' could add $6.6 billion to the industry's revenues by 2035, representing a 21% uplift to paid streaming revenues. Eric Sheridan of Goldman Sachs predicts increased confidence among industry participants that price increases will happen every 12-24 months.
Despite a lack of growth in the overall economy, live music ticket revenue showed significant growth between 2019 and 2024. Ticket revenue grew 76% between these years, despite a 50% rise in ticket prices. The report concludes that the music industry is poised for a major resurgence over the next decade, with significant opportunities for growth and revenue generation.
