New Pope Elected by Catholic Church: Selection Announcement
Posted on: May 8, 2025, 12:06h.Last updated on: May 8, 2025, 01:48h.
Settin' Up a Showdown at the Vatican: Who's the New Pope?Cardinals have chosen a successor to Pope Francis, who passed away last month
A puff of smoke ascended from Vatican City's Sistine Chapel chimney this afternoon, signifying that the long-awaited new Pope has been chosen.
The cardinal electors reconvened this afternoon following a morning session to make their decision.
Should the cardinals be seeking a forward-thinking Pope, similar to the late Pope Francis, they might choose Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines, or someone like Cardinal Pietro Parolin, a Vatican diplomat walking the line between progressives and conservatives.
If the church wants a candidate more middle-of-the-road, it could be Cardinal Peter Erdo, the 72-year-old Hungarian, who, despite being labeled a conservative in theology, reportedly maintained amicable relations with the progressive Pope Francis.
Polymarket, the crypto prediction market, saw a remarkable surge in the odds for Parolin since the white smoke announcement an hour ago, placing him at a whopping 63% probability (a hefty $2,3 million in volume). Tagle is now the runner-up at 25%.
Though regulated sportsbooks in the United States do not offer betting on the Pope, only a few licensed sportsbooks in Ontario provide markets, with BetVictor sharing that there's been no interest. Betting on popes has been a bustling activity in the UK, however.
Parolin: The Betting Favorites
According to the Catechism of the Catholic Church No. 2413:
Games of chance or wagers are not inherently unjust. They become immoral when they deprive someone of what they need for themselves or others.
Similar to the Renaissance, Romans used to bet on the naming of cardinals and papal reigns, with significant amounts at stake. However, when it started to affect the conclave, Vatican leaders took action with the 1591 Cogit Nos, which imposed excommunication on gambling on the Papacy. This rule was lifted in 1918, renewing the interest in betting on Papal elections.
Odds Galore
Notable shifts in the odds at BetMGM from Monday to Thursday include:
- Parolin: +225 to +250
- Tagle: +325 to +275
- Pierbattista Pizzaballa: +700 to +500
- Erdo: +1100 to unlisted (unknown odds)
BetMGM also offers "Any other not listed" at +400.
BetVictor: According to David Merry, a trader at BetVictor, betting on a new Pope has been stable and popular in the UK. As of earlier today, he reported 30 bets placing in the last hour, with the market remaining open for as long as possible.
Progressive or Conservative Pope?
The longest conclave in the history of the Catholic Church, selecting Pope Clement IV's successor in 1268, extended for three years. In the past 100 years, conclaves have generally wrapped up within three days.
The church has been divided between progressives and orthodox factions in recent years. With this tension, choosing someone with an even-keeled balance could be a safer bet.
- The new Pope, chosen by cardinals after the passing of Pope Francis, could potentially be Cardinal Pietro Parolin if the church seeks a forward-thinking successor.
- The crypto prediction market, Polymarket, has shown significant interest in Cardinal Pietro Parolin, placing him at a 63% probability and a high volume of $2,3 million.
- While regulated sportsbooks in the United States do not offer betting on the Pope, a few licensed sportsbooks in Ontario provide markets for papal elections, such as BetVictor.
- The Catechism of the Catholic Church states that games of chance or wagers are not inherently unjust, but can become immoral when they deprive someone of what they need for themselves or others.
- Betting on popes has a long history, dating back to the Renaissance, with significant amounts at stake, but it was only in 1918 that the rule imposing excommunication on gambling on the Papacy was lifted.
