NFL Moneyline odds on Kalshi were 10% and 16% lower compared to DraftKings and FanDuel respectively.
New Study Reveals Prediction Platform Kalshi Offers Higher Odds Compared to Sportsbooks
A new report by researchers from Citizens JMP Securities has contradicted claims that exchanges offer better pricing than fixed-odds sportsbooks. The researchers analyzed the odds for the opening week of NFL action, including both moneyline and over/under wagers.
According to the study, Kalshi's moneyline prices for Week 1 of the NFL season were found to be 10% higher than DraftKings and 16% higher than FanDuel. For over/under markets, the discrepancy widened to 25% for Kalshi compared to DraftKings and 23% compared to FanDuel.
Transaction fees were considered in the analysis, and it was found that the transaction fees for Kalshi were higher compared to the average fees at regulated sportsbooks. Users pay approximately $1.63 for 100 moneyline contracts and $1.75 for over/under wagers on Kalshi.
Despite some tightening by Sunday, prices still showed significant differences. The gap widened to 23% for moneyline markets and 25% for over/under markets compared to regulated sportsbooks.
Currently, no publicly detailed numerical comparisons of the most competitive prices for Moneyline and Over/Under NFL bets by companies versus the prediction platform Kalshi have been found. However, notable competitors to Kalshi in the US predictive betting market include Polymarket, Underdog Fantasy (partnered with Crypto.com), and FanDuel (partnered with CME Group), each potentially offering different odds and market features but without explicit percentage differences publicly available.
The researchers attributed the discrepancy to Kalshi's fees and concluded that the results indicate a lack of significant competitive threat for sportsbooks from prediction sites. The findings were based on a comparison of Friday's prices for Week 1 of the NFL season.
In conclusion, the report suggests that sportsbooks may still offer more competitive odds compared to prediction platforms like Kalshi. However, it is important to note that the analysis did not take into account the unique features and offerings of each platform, which may impact the overall betting experience for users.
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