Northern China shifts its energy sources, leaving Southern China behind in power sector reforms
In the past few years, China has seen a mixed picture when it comes to clean energy progress. While some regions have made significant strides, others have lagged behind or increased their dependence on fossil fuels.
In the central region, provinces such as Henan and Anhui stand out due to their relatively high population densities. However, in this same period, power generation from fossil fuels increased in every other Chinese region. Two eastern provinces, Shandong and Beijing, are exceptions, having successfully reduced power generation from fossil fuels in absolute terms.
Jiangsu, on the other hand, has made strong growth in clean energy generation, supported by its complete solar PV supply chain and robust wind turbine industry. The north-east, with its largest increase in clean energy share, achieved this due to having the largest increase in clean power and the lowest power demand growth rate. Liaoning, a key player in the north-east, hosts three major nuclear power bases and its nuclear generation share has grown significantly compared to other coastal provinces.
In contrast, seven of the 15 southern provinces, including economic powerhouses like Guangdong and Zhejiang, have seen a fall or stagnation in the share of clean power. Tianjin, among the four provinces covering a single megacity, performs the best, with Chongqing going backwards and Beijing and Shanghai barely moving. Among the key economic regions of the Yangtze and Pearl River deltas, Jiangsu fared the best, with Guangdong the worst performer and Zhejiang making no progress.
The growth of solar and wind is now pushing against the grid's capacity limitations. Shandong, home to nearly 70,000 enterprises in the solar power generation sector, is a leader in this regard. Liaoning, Heilongjiang, and Jilin are the top three provinces in terms of increasing clean power generation, with Liaoning achieving the largest increase (22 percentage points).
In western China, Qinghai achieved the largest increase in the share of clean power, and the largest such increase outside of the north-east. Regional-level coordination can make grids much more flexible, as demonstrated in the north-east. The mix of energy sources must be adapted to local conditions, and some provinces, like Inner Mongolia, Anhui, and Gansu, have made significant gains in cleaning up their power mixes despite rapid generation growth.
The provincial availability of clean electricity will become an increasingly important factor in economic competitiveness. Hebei leads the nation in total pumped storage capacity and became the first province to introduce a dedicated pricing policy for stand-alone storage. Hebei hosts several leading solar manufacturing firms and has led the deployment of storage and power grid technologies.
Nuclear power is expected to play a key role in achieving these targets, with its targeted share of total power generation at least 22% this year and 30% by 2030. Developing both power capacity and the manufacturing industry have gone hand-in-hand for many of the provinces leading clean energy deployment.
However, achieving further progress in the share of clean energy in China's power generation requires accelerated investment. The worst performers were found in the west, with Chongqing and Guizhou experiencing the largest drops in the share of clean electricity. Power generation from fossil fuels has decreased in six provinces, including Shandong, Beijing, Tibet, and all three north-eastern provinces.
As emission targets become more stringent and limit power generation from coal and gas, provinces unable to develop local, low-carbon generation will increasingly rely on imports. More densely populated provinces have additionally tapped into the potential for distributed solar, at industrial and residential sites.
In conclusion, while China has made significant strides in clean energy, there is still much work to be done. The key to success lies in regional-level coordination, adapting the mix of energy sources to local conditions, and accelerated investment in clean energy infrastructure.
