Paris Facing Another Crisis: Impact of the Collapse of the Government
In a surprising turn of events, the French government, led by Prime Minister François Bayrou, has fallen after just nine months in office. The vote of confidence in the National Assembly, initiated by Bayrou himself, was not successful, leading to his resignation and the subsequent need for President Emmanuel Macron to appoint a new Prime Minister.
The political landscape in the French parliament is complex, with no faction holding a majority. This situation is a result of the parliamentary elections in 2024, which were caused by Macron. Finding a new prime minister could once again be a difficult balancing act, as Macron's center block, the left-wing camp, and Le Pen's right-wing nationalists face each other as three major forces without their own majority in the lower house.
Macron is expected to keep the cabinet in office on a business-as-usual basis until a successor is found. However, the political paralysis resulting from a government change could delay budget plans and push foreign policy, including Ukraine aid, into the background.
The failure of the government is a significant defeat for President Macron, but he is not required to resign. Pressure on Macron, both on the streets and in parliament, is likely to increase following the government's collapse. In theory, Macron could dissolve the National Assembly again and call new elections, but he has made it clear that he does not want to resort to this means. If all attempts to find a prime minister fail, it is still conceivable that the French will be called back to the ballot box.
The European Commission is concerned about the budget situation in France, fearing it could escalate further given the political climate, potentially leading to renewed loss of trust in the Eurozone. The draft budget presented by Prime Minister Bayrou aimed to address France's rising public debt, currently at around 114 percent of GDP. A delay and deterioration in austerity efforts could have negative impacts on the interest burden of new government bonds and the French economy, with debt repayment installments potentially becoming the largest budget item.
Meanwhile, the impending government change will not immediately affect the relationship between France and Germany, with government spokesman Stefan Kornelius stating that the ability to act between both countries will remain and the exchange will remain close. However, the further weakening of Macron could result in more responsibility falling on German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Europe, as the USA continues to withdraw from supporting Ukraine. Germany is now considered the most important partner for Ukraine in terms of weapons deliveries and financial support.
A coalition plans to block the country after the fall of the government, and a massive cross-industry strike is threatened for next week. The political mix in the French parliament, where no faction has its own majority, could make finding a new prime minister a challenging task. The further weakening of Macron could also have implications beyond France, as the stability of the Eurozone and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine could be affected.
As the search for a new prime minister unfolds, France and the world watch with bated breath, hoping for a swift resolution and a return to political stability.
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