Plunging rapeseed prices - Rapeseed industry suffers following antidumping tariffs by China
The European Union's (EU) rapeseed harvest is set to be around 385,000 tonnes less than the June projection, but still almost 1.9 million tonnes more than in 2024. This revised forecast comes amidst a global market that's experiencing fluctuations in oilseed prices and production.
France, the largest rapeseed producer in the EU, is expected to harvest 4.2 million tonnes of rapeseed in 2025. However, the Commission's forecast for French rapeseed production is slightly below the June estimate but still significantly above last year's yield. Germany, another significant contributor, is expected to produce 3.9 million tonnes of rapeseed, marking a significant increase from 2024's yield of 3.6 million tonnes.
The Commission's forecast for the EU's overall rapeseed harvest in 2025 is approximately 18.54 million tonnes, a significant increase from 2024's yield. This upward trend is also reflected in the forecasts of the International Grains Council (IGC) and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), which projected 18.8 million tonnes and 19.5 million tonnes, respectively, for the 2025 EU rapeseed harvest.
However, the global oilseed market isn't without its challenges. Adverse weather significantly reduced yield potential in 2024, and similar conditions have affected sunflower seed production in Ukraine, reducing it by 5.5% to 13.8 million tonnes. In contrast, growing conditions for soybeans in the US Midwest remain very good.
The drop in rapeseed prices is primarily due to the introduction of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed by China and large soybean harvests in the US. As a result, rapeseed prices at Euronext have fallen to 461 euros and 467 euros per tonne for November 2025 and February 2026 respectively, marking the lowest prices since March 2025.
The persistent weakness of US soybeans is also affecting the Euronext rapeseed. Traders remain cautious ahead of the US Department of Agriculture's monthly global supply and demand report, which could further influence oilseed prices.
In Malaysia, palm oil prices have come under pressure due to increased production, large inventories, and weak export demand. Meanwhile, China's soybean imports reached a record high in July, with Brazil being the largest exporter of soybeans to China.
The EU rapeseed harvest forecast for 2025 shows a mixed picture. While Eastern Europe, specifically Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary, were expected to have the largest rapeseed harvest, their estimates have recently been reduced due to drought and heat. Despite this, the overall EU rapeseed harvest estimate was raised by 0.2 million tons compared to July 2025 forecasts.
Ukrainian rapeseed production forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 3.0 million tonnes. The drop in rapeseed prices in Winnipeg is nearly 4%, reflecting the global market's turbulence.
As the global oilseed market continues to evolve, the EU's rapeseed harvest forecast provides a snapshot of the challenges and opportunities facing European farmers and the global market.
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