Potential Outcomes in Ukraine: Exploring Three Possibilities
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to unfold with a mix of strategic maneuvers, tactical errors, and geopolitical implications.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, facing a stalemate, may escalate the conflict or potentially draw NATO into direct belligerency. However, Russia's military operations could be hampered by poor theatre command, degraded operational leadership, and manpower constraints.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is cautious about entering into a peace deal that does not serve Ukraine's best interests. He is determined that Kyiv should not lose at the table what its forces have gained on the battlefield. Any peace deal will likely be claimed as a victory by Putin, despite losing the war in a strategic sense.
The conflict is primarily focused on defending Ukraine's sovereignty against Russian aggression. There is no credible evidence suggesting that Ukraine plans to attack or defend other countries in Eastern Europe to gain control over territories there.
The defense of Kyiv has received significant media attention, while the wanton destruction of Mariupol has been overlooked. Ukrainian forces may impose costs via unconventional warfare, leveraging the training and concepts developed by American practitioners. However, they may lack troops familiar with some of the new weapons required for this offensive.
In the east and south of Ukraine, Russian forces have made greater advances and are concentrating their efforts to build upon these gains. Russian military leaders have designated a general officer with significant experience in Syria as the campaign commander.
Attritional warfare may still favor the Russians, with their heavy artillery and ballistic missiles. However, the Ukrainian way of war will have to evolve from the initial successes of the war's opening six weeks to counter the Russian advance.
The West could play a crucial role in supporting Ukraine, continuing to cover the costs for military operations, absorbing the flow of refugees, and meeting their humanitarian needs. It will be politically difficult for the Ukrainian people to accept the loss of territory and diminished political independence that Putin will demand.
In Scenario 1, Ukrainian forces may go on the offensive to counter any attempts to surround their brigades holding the line in the Donbas, with the aim of clearing Kharkiv and Kershon. Putin is likely to claim the crescent of terrain from Kharkiv to Kershon as his spoils, but the amount he intends to keep permanently or use as bargaining chips will depend on negotiations and battlefield results.
Russian military leaders do not underestimate the motivation or lethality of the resistance. They are aware of the need to avoid the same tactical mistakes their adversaries have made. The future of the conflict remains uncertain, with both sides maneuvering for advantage and seeking a resolution that serves their interests.
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