Predicting COVID-19 Outbreak Trends Across Africa
In a significant move to combat the spread of COVID-19 on the African continent, an international team of researchers, including those from Lancaster University, have devised a strategy for understanding the evolution of the pandemic across Africa.
The strategy was developed in collaboration with colleagues in the USA, Uganda, and Switzerland. The team's aim is to improve the ability of African countries to interpret complex data during the pandemic and control the spread of the virus.
The first reported case of COVID-19 on the African continent was in Egypt on February 14, 2020. Since then, the pandemic has presented unique challenges, particularly in settings with fragile health systems and lower Human Development Index (HDI) economies.
One of the key findings of the research is that a country's testing capacity, social policy, landlocked status, temperature, and humidity are important contributing factors explaining the within and between-country transmission of cases. The strategy developed by the researchers allows for distinguishing cases within a country from those originating from neighbouring countries.
Although Africa has a younger population, a lack of adequate healthcare and comorbidities such as HIV are predicted to lead to increased risk of severe COVID-19 in those infected. The researchers also observed the effect of the HDI, containment policies, testing capacity, specific humidity, temperature, and landlocked status of countries on the local within-country and external between-country transmission.
The strategy emphasises the need for equitable behavioural and social interventions, combined with coordinated country-specific strategies in infection suppression. This approach is seen as a continental priority to control the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa.
By August 13, 2020, over 1 million new cases and over 20,000 deaths had been reported in all African Union (AU) Member States. Projections suggest that over 44 million cases and 190,000 deaths in Africa are projected within the first year of the pandemic.
Regional efforts to coordinate resources for testing and reporting cases could be advantageous in addressing these challenges. The strategy developed by the researchers is a significant step towards achieving this goal.
