Propaganda Intensity in Russia Indicates Level of National Security Risk
Russia's involvement in the affairs of the Baltic states, including Latvia, has noticeably decreased compared to its activity in Ukraine. However, Moscow continues to exert pressure on Latvia, hoping that its information influence activities will sway the country's policy towards Russia.
The National Electronic Mass Media Council (NEPLP) is the Latvian organisation responsible for monitoring and analysing Russian information influence activities and campaigns. These activities, which include propaganda and disinformation, are seen as one of many indicators of Russia's intentions. By tracking these activities, it is possible to prepare for potential actions in a timely manner.
Russia's messages to its domestic audience are designed to construct an image of an external enemy and a sense of threat. This is also true for its activities outside Russia, where it targets compatriots living abroad and pro-Russian individuals. Prominent propaganda mouthpieces in Russia, such as V. Solovyov, often deliver aggressive and dramatic messages about current events.
To discredit and weaken the Latvian state, Russia emphasises its economic problems and any other shortcomings. It also uses representatives of this audience - various pro-Russian activists - in the creation and dissemination of propaganda and disinformation.
The probability of a direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO is currently low, as Russia's military resources are concentrated in Ukraine. However, if the war in Ukraine were to be "frozen" and the armed forces no longer suffered significant military losses in active combat, the Russian military threat to NATO would significantly increase. In such a scenario, Russia could implement plans to increase military forces towards NATO's northeastern flank, including the Baltics, within approximately a 5-year period.
The SAB considers various factors and their changes over time when assessing the impact of Russian information pressure. One crucial factor is dominance in the information space, which is used to shield President V. Putin from responsibility for what is happening in the country.
In conclusion, while the immediate military threat from Russia may be low, its information influence activities towards the Baltic states, particularly Latvia, should not be underestimated. It is essential for countries like Latvia to remain vigilant and prepared, monitoring and analysing Russian activities to protect their sovereignty and security.
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