Rapid growth in the electric vehicle market isn't likely, according to a grid analysis, due to a missing critical prerequisite.
A recent study by Transport & Mobility Leuven, commissioned by the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA), has shed light on the current challenges facing Europe's transition to zero-emission vehicles. The study, titled 'Accelerating Change: Closing the Gaps in Europe's Shift to Zero-Emission Vehicles', assesses the progress of key indicators towards the 2035 target of 100% CO2 reduction for all new vehicles.
The study focuses on four main areas crucial for the transition: the quality and readiness of the electricity grid, consumer perspective, recharging and refilling infrastructure, and the resilience of the battery value chain.
One of the key findings is the lack of capacity in the European electrical grid, which poses a significant challenge for the transition to zero-emission vehicles. This issue needs to be addressed to facilitate the transition and ensure the grid can support the increasing demand for electricity from electric vehicles (EVs).
Another obstacle is the high prices of energy, batteries, and critical raw materials. These high costs are hindering the transition to zero-emission vehicles, creating high barriers to consumer buy-in. The study indicates that energy, battery, and critical raw material prices remain high, posing barriers to consumer buy-in.
The progress in key areas for transforming Europe's automotive industry into a zero-emission sector by 2035 shows ongoing advancements in electric vehicle development and carbon footprint reduction. For example, the BMW iX3 demonstrates a 34% lower product carbon footprint compared to its predecessors and achieves break-even CO2 benefits after about 17,500 km when charged with renewable electricity. However, the overall net zero ambitions for the entire value chain are targeted by 2050, indicating that while important steps are being made, full zero-emission transformation by 2035 is still a work in progress.
The study also reveals that almost all categories, aside from the number of EV models made available by manufacturers, are in the 'red' and 'amber' category, indicating urgent action is needed to overcome bottlenecks towards Europe's 2035 goals. The current situation indicates a need for action to address these high barriers to consumer buy-in for zero-emission vehicles.
In conclusion, the study suggests that significant action is required in multiple areas to reach the 2035 target of 100% CO2 reduction for all new vehicles in Europe. The electricity grid, consumer perspective, recharging and refilling infrastructure, and the battery value chain are not on track to meet this target. Urgent action is necessary in these areas to overcome the bottlenecks that stand between Europe and its 2035 goals for zero-emission vehicles.
