Russia anticipates a 50% decrease in bilateral trade with Armenia by the year 2025
In a stark warning at the Eastern Economic Forum, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Aleksei Overchuk predicted that trade turnover between Russia and Armenia would fall by half by the end of 2025, from $12.4 billion in 2024 to around $6 billion.
The decline, Overchuk suggested, is conditioned by the drop in re-exports of Russian gold. This assertion follows an investigation by the Insider and Hetq in 2024, which revealed that Armenian firms were helping Russia bypass a Western embargo on gold trading.
Overchuk compared Armenia's potential membership in the European Union to buying a ticket for the Titanic, implying potential economic peril. However, he did not elaborate on the reasons behind the drop in trade turnover.
According to Suren Parsyan, an associate professor at Armenian State University of Economics, Armenia was primarily re-exporting Russian gold to the UAE in 2024. This practice came to a halt due to the imposition of a gold export duty in Armenia and the removal of the duty in Russia.
The decline in Armenian-Russian trade turnover can also be attributed to the fact that the 'inflated trade figure' of 2024 could not be sustained after the re-export of gold was stopped, Parsyan stated.
Armenia's exports to Russia declined by 6% in the first seven months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, while imports from Russia dropped by a more significant 64% in the same timeframe.
Some of the largest importers of Russian gold to Armenia are connected to influential Armenian politicians, oligarchs, and businesses with ties to Russia. Notable examples include Khachatur Sukiasyan, a prominent MP from the ruling Civil Contract party, who is linked to the Yerevan Jewelry Factory, the third-largest importer of Russian gold into Armenia.
Mobile Center, a company that imports electrical equipment to Armenia and reportedly re-exports some to Russia, is among the top tax-payers in Armenia.
For a country with a GDP of approximately $26 billion, these are very significant figures. Economists suggest that the sharp decline in Armenia's re-exports of Russian gold were behind the drop in trade turnover.
Overchuk has previously blamed the decline in trade to Armenia seeking EU membership. However, the implications of this decline for Armenia's economy and its relationship with Russia remain to be seen.
