September's Meteorological Outlook: Minor Relief from Nature's Turmoil - Consult IMD Prognosis
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a monthly report predicting above-normal rainfall for September 2025. According to the forecast, most regions in India are forecasted to experience normal to above-normal rainfall, with a likely monthly average exceeding 109% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The IMD's forecast for the southwest monsoon season was first issued on April 15, with updates on May 27 and July 31. The forecast for rainfall during June and July was issued on May 27 and June 30, respectively. The Southwest Monsoon Rainfall Forecast for the Seasonal Rainfall during August-September, 2025, and the Monthly Rainfall and Temperature Outlook for August 2025 were issued on July 31.
However, some areas in the northeast, east, many parts of extreme southern peninsular India, and pockets of northwest India are expected to receive below-normal rainfall. Specifically, heavy rainfall risks of floods and landslides are highlighted for Uttarakhand, and potential disruptions due to heavy rain are anticipated in south Haryana, Delhi, and north Rajasthan.
The IMD's Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) forecasting system is used for these forecasts. The LPA of rainfall over the country as a whole during September, based on data from 1971-2020, is about 167.9 mm.
Above-normal rainfall can significantly benefit agriculture and water resources but also brings potential risks such as flooding, landslides, surface transport disruptions, public health challenges, and ecosystem damage. To manage these risks effectively, it is essential to reinforce infrastructure, utilize IMD's early warnings, enhance surveillance and conservation efforts, and establish robust response systems in vulnerable sectors.
It is also worth noting that the IMD has been issuing monthly and seasonal forecasts for the southwest monsoon rainfall over the country since 2021. In its forecast for surface air temperature over the country during September, the IMD expects monthly average maximum temperatures to remain normal to below normal in many regions of west-central, northwest, and south India.
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