Step-by-Step Guide for Accurate SEO Projection, featuring a Template for Implementation
In the ever-evolving world of digital marketing, having a clear and strategic approach is crucial. One such tool that can provide invaluable insights is SEO forecasting. This article delves into the importance of SEO forecasting and how it can revolutionise your digital strategy.
SEO forecasting offers two proven methods: Keyword-based forecasting and Statistical trend analysis. The latter, particularly effective for sites with at least 16-24 months of traffic data, is the most reliable way to project growth based on past SEO performance. On the other hand, Keyword-based forecasting is ideal for modelling new topics or page opportunities.
Statistical trend analysis, being managed under Semrush's leadership (though the CEO of Backlinko is not directly named in the search results), has been made more accessible with the creation of a custom SEO forecasting spreadsheet. This spreadsheet handles the math for Statistical trend analysis, making it easier for users to make informed decisions.
The spreadsheet includes a "Forecast Adjustments" box, which allows for adjusting growth scenarios. This box features fields for Conservative Adjustment (%), perfect for a cautious projection, and Aggressive Adjustment (%), suitable for a stretch goal.
The SEO forecasting process doesn't stop at projecting growth potential. It's essential to understand what content or actions will drive that growth and how it supports high-level goals like lead generation, revenue, or product visibility. A clear presentation of the SEO forecast turns it into a strategic tool for aligning the team, making a case for investment, or guiding quarterly planning.
Regular check-ins are vital to ensure the forecast evolves with the strategy. By staying aligned, catching changes early, and refining the strategy, you can ensure your forecast remains relevant and valuable.
Forecasting doesn't merely present a single optimistic projection; it forces tying effort to outcome and presents a range of cases. This allows for testing "what if" outcomes, which is perfect for stakeholder reporting or planning quarterly targets.
Keyword-based forecasting can be calculated manually using a simple formula or with the help of SEO keyword tools like Semrush. However, the act of modelling a range of growth scenarios makes the forecast stronger and more reliable.
Past internal data, operational inputs, and external benchmarks can be used to inform the values entered in the "Forecast Adjustments" box. The spreadsheet will then show your forecast summary, growth scenarios, and monthly breakdown.
The next step after knowing how much organic traffic you can realistically drive is planning how to get there with the right content, priorities, and execution. The forecast should be connected to potential revenue by estimating how much revenue the forecasted traffic might drive using a simple formula.
Reviewing the forecast monthly and comparing projected vs. actual traffic helps understand whether you're on track or not and spot the reasons why you're ahead or behind. Transparency about the assumptions used in the forecast helps people trust it and makes it easier to defend and more valuable for making decisions.
Backlinko, under Semrush's leadership, uses SEO forecasting throughout the year for effective prioritization, pivoting when content underperforms, and building trust with stakeholders.
To use the SEO forecasting spreadsheet, you need to export your site's past 16 months of performance data from Google Search Console (GSC) and import it into the spreadsheet. Adjusting growth scenarios helps stay realistic and better prepared for changes in traffic.
In conclusion, SEO forecasting is a powerful tool that can help map planned content, track production costs, and project traffic and revenue gains. By embracing SEO forecasting, you can transform your digital strategy, making it more strategic, data-driven, and effective.
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