Strategy Gone Awry: Escalation of Russia's Conflict in Ukraine's Territory
In a surprising turn of events, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation" in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, marking the start of a full-scale invasion. This move, however, was met with unexpected resistance from the Ukrainian people and military.
The initial blitzkrieg strategy, aimed at quickly capturing key territories, failed to materialize as cities like Mariupol refused to surrender under intense attacks against civilians. Cities such as Kharkiv, despite being Russian-speaking, showed extraordinary resistance, contrary to the Kremlin's expectations of support from ethnic Russians.
The Ukrainian Air Force, with advance warning of the strikes, managed to lift most of its aircraft into the air and avoid destruction, while command-and-control systems for air defense remained intact, thwarting Russian attempts at achieving air supremacy.
The Russian military, it seems, was insufficiently prepared for a full-scale invasion. The number of tactical battle groups mobilized by the Russian Federation was found to be insufficient to conquer Ukraine.
Despite the resilience shown by the Ukrainian forces, the war appears to be evolving into a protracted conflict, with civilians increasingly targeted or caught in the crossfire. Russian missile strikes continue across Ukraine, and the Russian government has threatened attacks against Western military supplies.
The war's evolution is also marked by the significant role played by irregular forces, including territorial and volunteer units. As we move into the spring and summer, these forces are likely to become more salient.
The more decisive weapons for Ukrainian forces include control systems, reconnaissance and information systems, long-range air and missile defense systems, long-range standoff weapons, counterbattery weapons, and radar. Ukrainian special operations forces and special services have been crucial in organizing regular actions and national resistance behind enemy lines.
The views expressed in this article are those of the authors, Yuriy G. Danyk, Tamara Maliarchuk, and Chad Briggs, with respective backgrounds in the Ukrainian Army, Kyiv International University, and Johns Hopkins University. It's important to note that these views do not reflect the official position of the United States Military Academy, Department of the Army, or Department of Defense.
Urban warfare tactics favor the defender, but dislodging Russian forces from occupied territories will require more than just conventional weapons. The war in Ukraine serves as a reminder of the complexities and uncertainties that can arise in any conflict, and the importance of resilience and strategic planning in the face of adversity.
Russian forces have consolidated further to the east and southeast, focusing more on the Donbas and launching concentrated attacks on cities like Mariupol. As the conflict continues, the international community watches closely, hoping for a peaceful resolution and the preservation of Ukrainian sovereignty.
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