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The Donbas, a region larger than Switzerland and accounting for about 9% of Ukraine's total territory, has been a focal point of conflict since a separatist insurgency backed by Moscow began in 2014. This area, named after the Donets River and its coal basin, is rich in raw minerals and has historical significance for President Volodymyr Zelensky, as his grandfather fought against the Nazis in the area during World War II.
The region, which borders Russia, has been at war for over eight years. The Donetsk region, in particular, has seen some of the bloodiest battles against Russia, such as in Mariupol, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka. The terrain of the Donbas makes it difficult for Russian forces to rapidly envelop or penetrate the chain of fortifications that Kyiv has been consistently building up since 2014, stretching from the towns of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk in the north down to Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka in the south.
According to the US-based Institute for the Study of War, Russia currently holds about 79% of the Donetsk region and almost all of the Lugansk region. However, Ukraine maintains that Russia controls 67-69% of the Donetsk region. Despite these territorial losses, Ukraine has spent the last 11 years pouring time, money, and effort into reinforcing the fortress belt in the Donetsk region.
The strategic importance of the Donbas for Ukraine is not lost on its leaders. Zelensky has emphasised the region's significance, stating that it is a matter of the country's survival. Giving up the Donbas could have devastating consequences for Ukraine's future security, as it would open the gate to a future deeper invasion of Ukraine.
The region had a population of about six million in the two regions according to the last pre-2014 census from 2001. However, the instability and conflict have led to a significant displacement of people. In the Donbas region, institutions mainly include separatist militias and armed groups that have created an atmosphere of fear with killings, torture, and human rights violations under de facto control, along with a breakdown of law and order. Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian separatists are involved in military conflict, while Ukraine has established a National Guard to counter separatism.
Ceding the Donbas would put Ukraine in a position that is significantly less defensible than the current line, potentially opening roads to the cities of Dnipro and Kharkiv. The Donbas, while not well-suited for fortifications due to its flat landscape on the region's border, has been fortified by Ukraine to protect its sovereignty and future.
The Donbas is also rich in raw minerals, such as lithium, uranium, titanium, and rare earths. However, many of these resources remain untapped in the occupied or embattled territories. In May, Washington and Kyiv signed a minerals deal that allows the United States to exploit Ukraine's rare earth and other deposits, potentially providing a boost to Ukraine's economy if the conflict is resolved.
The Donbas is a traditionally majority Russian-speaking area, though many Ukrainian speakers also live there. The region's future remains uncertain, but its strategic importance to Ukraine and its rich resources make it a battleground that will likely continue to be contested for years to come.
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