The Remaining State of Online Poker and the Authenticity of Solvers, Tips, and Artificial Intelligence as Potential Threats
Revamped Article:
The Poker Myth-Busting Guide: Shining Light on the Future of Poker
Strap in, players, as we debunk the common misconception that the poker community is facing its demise. This article explores the real deal behind the AI evolution in poker, the impact of GTO tools, and whether modern assistants really make the game tougher or just leave us scratching our heads. By the end of this read, you'll have a clearer understanding of the actual threats to poker, how to adapt your approach, and why the game is still far from being yesterday's news.
Cepheus: The First Bot to Round the Golden Brick Road
First things first, let's clear the air: poker is not anywhere near its end game. Let's delve into the reasons why poker has a long and bright future ahead.
The question of poker's future often goes hand in hand with the question of whether the game is solvable or not. If the perfect mathematical solution is found, it means that invincible opponents can theoretically exist in poker, particularly online. If too many players wield GTO solutions, it might create an impenetrable wall for profit-seekers attempting to make a living playing poker.
So, let's dig deeper, starting with the concept of real-time RTA-assistants, which, as we'll see, are not just the stuff of futuristic sci-fi films. RTA refers to real-time assistance, whether it's GTO-playing bots or humans clicking buttons based on GTO advice.
The idea of real-time assistance precedes the commercial availability of solvers. Even before the infamous 2011 Black Friday, there were whispers that poker was on the verge of collapse, as people claimed that everyone had learned to play smartly. Following the Black Friday debacle, and with worsening conditions, this chatter became a prevailing mantra, leading many players to believe that the poker gold rush was over.
One significant event that fueled this skepticism was the news that in 2015, the AI bot Cepheus “solved” poker in the limit heads-up form. With concerns about poker's profitability already stirring, the arrival of Cepheus further convinced many that this was indeed the end of the game: "We knew this day would come - poker is finally dead. There's no way to make money in it anymore."
In the end, though, humans held no chance against Cepheus in limit heads-up poker. Even if you spent all your time studying GTO, you could only expect to break even against it - but with rake, the resulting revenue would still be negative. So, even under the best of circumstances, your shot at profit against this bot would be slim. In light of such news, it's no wonder people felt forehead-slapping doom: was making money in poker now impossible?
Did the arrival of Cepheus truly signal the end? This bot was built specifically for limit heads-up play, but even so, only a few actually engaged in this particular poker discipline. Sure, there were a few old-school heads-up grinders in the online poker scene, but even they didn't all limit themselves to heads-up action - many preferred 9-max or 6-max tables.
The Might of Strong and Weak Solutions
It's interesting to note that Cepheus didn't fully solve heads-up limit poker. Technically speaking, it offered a so-called weak solution. In game theory, there are several levels of solutions, including:
- A strong solution gives ideal moves at any point in the game, even if one or both players have made mistakes previously;
- A weak solution offers optimal moves for both players as long as neither has made a mistake before the current point. However, if one player made a non-GTO play on the preceding street, the optimal solution may be unknown;
- An ultra-weak solution shows the expected outcome for one player (win, lose, or draw) if both players adopt perfectly GTO strategies from the start. The intricacy of ultra-weak solutions varies from simple long-term winning predictions to solutions that take multiple variables into account but still fall short of being weak solutions.
Cepheus' strategy for heads-up limit poker represented a weak solution: it knew how to play perfect poker, but only if the opponent followed GTO-prescribed actions. Against suboptimal opponents who frequently blundered, Cepheus often still won - but not always, and certainly not consistently.
Now let's journey into the uncharted territories of no-limit hold'em. Players aren't limited to solvers here; they also have access to pre-calculated solutions. If we want to find a GTO solution for any given spot, we can do so quickly. But what kind of solution are we dealing with? It's clear that the solver's solution isn't complete; it falls somewhere between strong and ultra-weak.
Why Having Solvers in Your Arsenal Doesn't Mean the Game is Sewed Up
After thorough examination, we can conclude that the solver's calculations amount to an ultra-weak solution. The calculations of modern solvers don't come close to what Cepheus achieved in 2015. Cepheus offered weak solutions because it considered any possible action as part of the GTO tree, factoring in various bet sizes and raises, which is doable in limit hold'em due to its limited bet sizing options.
We can say that the decision tree in heads-up limit hold'em is relatively small, but not by much. Even in this discipline, the tree is enormous, with numerous action development scenarios, possible flops, turns, and rivers. To give you an idea, it took Cepheus, a powerful supercomputer with 48 processors, a whopping 68 days of constant labor to solve heads-up limit poker.
The decision tree in no-limit hold'em is exponentially more complex. If we want a full solution - one that considers every possible bet size from checking to all-in, every possible stack depth, and so forth - we would need computers with processing power far beyond what currently exists. And even then, the solution would only be classified as weak, not complete or strong like Cepheus.
GTO: A Stiff Competitor or a Frenemy in Poker's Evolving Landscape?
If you've ever worked with a solver, you're familiar with the process: you tell the solver the actions it can take for each node point, like 50% and 100% pot on the flop. Sometimes, there isn't even a choice to make, like when the solver checks the flop before a preflop raiser or goes all-in.
Do Solvers and Online Poker Have a Date to Dance at the Graveyard?
With such daunting complexity, it's unlikely that an even a weak solution will be found for no-limit hold'em in the foreseeable future. On the other hand, an ultra-weak solver solution is still an incredibly strong strategy that most players cannot consistently beat. Plus, GTO solutions are already widely available to players due to both human and AI solvers. So, is online poker's forfeitnecessary to achieve full solvability? Let's ponder on that...
Are Real-Time Assistance (RTA) Tools a Long-Term Winning Strategy?
First and foremost, using RTA violates the terms of service for online poker rooms. Cheaters might get away with it for a while, but eventually, they'll be ban-hammered by the various security services these poker rooms maintain. It's challenging enough to catch on to the average player; throwing hacked RTA programs into the mix makes it even tougher to spot suspicious behavior.
There are two types of RTA: automatic (solver-bots) and manual (a person using solver input to make decisions). The manual advisor seems appealingly inconspicuous: "Just do what the solver suggests." But even if we know the solution for a specific spot, it's often complex and filled with mixed strategies, making it difficult to follow without strong analytical skills. And remember that implementing such solutions requires manually entering every new spot into the solver, which lowers both the frequency at which hands are played and the potential profit.
Real-Time Advisors: Cracking the Poker Code or Unintentionally Spreading Malware?
Another angle to consider is the practicality of implementing ultra-weak solver solutions in practice. The time and effort required to set up automatic advisors make it unattractive for most Chess-wizard-level players. You'd need to know how to program an RTA-bot, establish information transfer between the solver and a separate computer, and program that computer to click buttons in your poker client automatically.
The irony is that a player skilled enough to pull off such a scheme is likely already winning at high-stakes online poker without needing an advisor.
So, What's Next for the Online Poker Scene?
While it's difficult to play against someone who masterfully employs an RTA-advisor, such cheating tools are relatively easy for security services to detect. Besides, the high barrier to entry means that only a small fraction of players can engage in this cheat sheet-wielding practice.
The good news is that game selection can aid players in their quest for profit.
Playing the Numbers Game in a GTO World
In poker, the presence of better players is challenging but not necessarily a death sentence, as long as we choose our opponents wisely. There will always be stronger players in our pool, but that doesn't mean we can't profit. Gem selection has always played an integral role in poker, so if we suspect someone of cheating, it's best to play elsewhere. We should select opponents we have a clear skill advantage over. As long as we adhere to this principle, a small percentage of cheaters in the field doesn't need to scare us - we can still capitalize on their existence.
Poker Isn't the Limit Hold'em Show: A Fresh Canvas for Profit Opportunities
No-limit hold'em isn't the only online poker game out there. If players have found a way to cheat using RTA-assistance in NLHE, those tools will only work within that particular game.
Even if no-limit hold'em becomes inundated with solvers, the worst-case scenario is a migration to other poker disciplines, such as pot-limit Omaha or other games where calculating the perfect strategy proved far more challenging.
And if we happen to come across a heads-up match with a GTO-bot, we can still theoretically beat it. After all, its GTO strategy isn't flawless, and understanding its weaknesses could help us achieve a positive winrate against it.
Muddying the Waters: Are GTO Resources Making Players Smarter or More Confused?
The widespread availability of GTO resources has undoubtedly changed the game's dynamics. Players are now more aware of advanced theoretical strategies. But does this translate to an overall improvement in overall game quality? For every online player, the learning curve has steadily climbed, but it's unclear whether this trend reflects a higher-quality poker scene, or if the confusion brought on by GTO knowledge is actually detrimental to players' performances.
Instead of relying solely on mastery of complex GTO strategies, perhaps focusing on implementing strategic exploitation against weaker opponents would be a more fruitful approach to maintaining a winning edge.
- The first bot to round the "Golden Brick Road" in poker was Cepheus, which represented a weak solution in game theory by offering optimal moves for both players as long as neither had made a mistake before the current point.
- Even though Cepheus solved heads-up limit poker, it was built specifically for that discipline, and only a few players engaged in it.
- The decision tree in no-limit hold'em is exponentially more complex, and even if we want a full solution, we would need computers with processing power far beyond what currently exists.
- Real-time assistance (RTA) tools, such as solver-bots and manual advisors, are not long-term winning strategies due to their compliance issues and high barrier to entry.
- game selection can aid players in their quest for profit, even in a GTO world, as long as we choose our opponents wisely and avoid those suspected of cheating.
- If no-limit hold'em becomes inundated with solvers, there will be a potential migration to other poker disciplines such as pot-limit Omaha or other games, where calculating the perfect strategy proved far more challenging.
