Time in Europe
In the current political landscape, the European Union (EU) is presented as a concrete alternative to a return to separate, fragmented nation-states. However, achieving strategic unity within the EU remains uncertain, with headwinds such as hostile electoral trends and political fragmentation.
Recent developments have shown the EU's potential vulnerability. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has seen the gradual build-up of a formidable Ukrainian army, with the Kiel Institute announcing that Europeans are now the main funders of the Ukrainian army. Yet, the deployment of European security guarantees remains uncertain, potentially waiting indefinitely for a prior ceasefire or American support.
Meanwhile, the Tianjin summit and a massive military parade in Beijing demonstrate Beijing's aggressive posturing, taking advantage of transatlantic tensions and internal chaos in the United States to project its power.
In the United States, President Trump's neo-imperialism is described as wishful, incoherent, and subject to verification. His strategic incompetence is evident in his drive that pushed India into the arms of China with 50% tariffs. Moreover, Trump has shown support for authoritarian leaders like Putin and Kim Jong-un, applauding Putin in Anchorage, while simultaneously criticizing them as a "dictators' trio" to the West.
The current threat to Europe is the United States, allied (more or less) with Russia, in an authoritarian and imperialistic project that forces Europe to defend itself alone against Russia. This sentiment was echoed by European leaders who visited the White House on August 18 to support Volodymyr Zelensky, a move criticized by some as humiliating due to the recent Anchorage summit where the U.S. was perceived as submissive to Vladimir Putin.
Radical nationalist right-wing parties, now making up or exceeding 25-30% in several major European countries, view the European Union as a "tentacled monster" and gravedigger of national identities. This growing sentiment, coupled with the perceived betrayal by the U.S., has sparked discussions in parts of Europe about resisting Russian hegemony through the creation of a new common military alliance.
However, Europe is currently not adequately equipped to counter conventional Russian attacks, and a military and military-political new setup seems necessary. The aim is to build significantly better defence capabilities and leadership structures over the next five years, independent of EU bureaucracy, to also deter nuclear threats.
Bernard Guetta, a European deputy, believes Europe is united more strongly than ever, fighting against both Russian imperialism and Trump's potential deal-making with Russia at the expense of Ukraine and Europe.
The author of this article can be contacted at [email protected]. This text is part of the Opinion section of Le Devoir, promoting a plurality of voices and ideas, and does not necessarily reflect the values and position of the publication as a whole.
The Russian war against Ukraine is not going well; despite intensified bombings, signs of ground bogging down are present, and the Russian economy is taking a hit, with nearly half of the state's expenses devoted to war. Putin has been seeking Ukraine for 11 years, and Russia's asymmetric war against Europe includes computer piracy, sabotage of underwater cables, electoral disinformation, and support for extreme rights.
As Europe navigates these challenges, it is clear that unity and strategic planning will be crucial in maintaining its position as a global power and in defending against external threats.
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