Trust concerns raised:
The French government, led by Prime Minister François Bayrou, finds itself in a precarious position as it prepares to face a vote of confidence in the National Assembly on Monday. The outcome of this vote is uncertain, with the opposition holding a significant majority, making it a gamble for Bayrou's minority government.
If Bayrou fails to secure the necessary votes, it is likely that the government will be toppled, leading to a deepening political crisis in France. This would be the second consecutive prime minister brought down by the opposition, and it would be a blow for President Emmanuel Macron.
The potential fall of the government comes at a time when France is facing economic challenges. The country has the highest debt ratio in the eurozone, with public debt at around 114 percent of GDP. The upcoming negotiations on the austerity budget are expected to be extremely difficult. The draft budget presented by Bayrou provides for a savings volume of 43.8 billion euros, but the high debt ratio and the budget deficit of 5.8 percent, far exceeding the European limit of 3 percent, make the task ahead daunting.
A defeated government would initially bring instability to France, which needs to get its debt under control and pass a budget for the following year. New elections would further complicate the situation, as neither Macron's centrist camp, the leftist forces, nor Marine Le Pen's right-wing nationalists have a majority in the National Assembly, making forming a government difficult.
If no one takes the reins for an extended period, this could further erode trust in the markets. To avoid this, President Macron may dissolve the lower house and call for new elections, or he may appoint a new Prime Minister as soon as possible after a lost vote of confidence.
In such a scenario, Emmanuel Macron has proposed Sébastien Lecornu as the new Prime Minister. Regardless of who takes the helm, President Macron would remain the key figure in French foreign policy, but he may be less visible on the international stage due to the domestic crisis.
The government is expected to face mass protests and potential chaos next Wednesday, adding to the tension and uncertainty surrounding the vote of confidence. The political future of France hangs in the balance, with the possibility of being in a political dead end if the vote is lost.
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