Turkey to reveal Q2 2025 GDP growth figures on September 1, revised numbers account for Syrian refugee influx
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) has completed a significant overhaul of its national accounts system, marking a new era in the country's economic data reporting. The revised system incorporates adjustments for previously unrecorded labor payments, changes in profit measures, and updates to production, expenditure, and income components.
One of the key changes is the recalculation of supply and use tables to ensure balance in GDP measurement. This revision extends the revised GDP series back to 1995, providing a comprehensive view of Turkey's economic growth over the past few decades.
In the first quarter of 2025, Turkey's economy grew by 2%, while China posted a growth of 5.2% in the same period. The United States expanded by 3.3% on an annualized basis during the same period, and the Eurozone economies grew by 1.5%.
The revisions to the Turkish national accounts system also include new classifications, business registers, survey methods, administrative data sources, and the integration of electronic invoice data. This ensures a more accurate representation of economic output per person, as population figures now include both citizens and those under temporary protection.
As of Aug. 21, the number of Syrian refugees under temporary protection stands at 2.5 million. For the first time, these refugees will be included in the calculation of per capita GDP in Turkey. The figures for 2013-2024 have been updated to account for the Syrian refugee population.
According to a Reuters survey, the Turkish economy is expected to grow by approximately 4.1% in the second quarter of 2025, with projections ranging from 2.2% to 4.5% among economists surveyed. The business survey predicts Turkish economy to grow 3.9% in Q2 2025. Other sources report slightly different forecasts around 3.9% to 4.8% for Q2 2025.
For the full year 2025, participants in the business survey expect growth of about 3.18%. The Turkish economy is projected to reach $1.4T in 2025, according to Trade Minister. The change will be reflected in upcoming publications on government accounts, institutional sector accounts, and provincial GDP.
It's important to note that these projections are slightly below the government's target of 4% for the year 2025. However, the comprehensive revision of the national accounts system is expected to provide a more accurate and comprehensive view of Turkey's economic growth and development.
