Turkey to unveil revised Economic Medium-Term Plan for the years 2026-2028 on September 8th
The Turkish government is set to unveil its updated Medium-Term Program (MTP) on September 8, providing a comprehensive roadmap for the country's economic future from 2026 to 2028.
Under the existing program, exports were expected to reach $279.6 billion by the end of 2025. However, according to the latest foreign trade figures in August, Turkey's annualized exports have already surpassed this target, reaching $269.2 billion. Exports are forecast to further increase to $296.1 billion in 2026 and $417.5 billion for 2027.
Imports are also projected to rise, with figures expected to reach $369 billion for 2025, $390.6 billion for 2026, and $417.5 billion for 2027. The updated MTP will focus on managing this growth to ensure a balanced economy.
The budget balance-to-GDP ratio has been a key focus of the government's economic strategy. The target for 2025 is a narrowing of the deficit to -3.1% from the current -4.9% recorded in 2024. By the end of the program period, the goal is to achieve a surplus of 2.5%.
The updated MTP has been prepared with a participatory approach, involving various stakeholders in the decision-making process. It aims to address key challenges, including disinflation, balanced growth, lasting social welfare, and recovery from last year's earthquake.
Economic growth projections for Turkey are positive, with both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank forecasting a 3.0% and 3.1% year-end GDP growth for 2025, respectively.
Unemployment is also expected to ease gradually, with the jobless rate declining to 8% as of July, the lowest over the decade. The unemployment rate is forecast to further decrease to 9.2% in 2026 and 8.8% in 2027.
The Turkish government’s current MTP forecasts a gradual improvement in the balance of payments, with GDP growth stabilizing around 4-5%, unemployment decreasing to approximately 10-11%, and exports increasing steadily by 7-9% annually between 2025 and 2027.
However, there have been some indications that the year-end growth rate may come "slightly" below the MTP target. Turkey's Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek has acknowledged this possibility.
The updated MTP will revise macroeconomic indicators for 2025 while setting out the budget framework and reform agenda for the following three years. The press conference scheduled for 9.00 a.m. local time (GMT+3) will provide more details about the updated MTP and its implications for Turkey's economy.
