U.S. Launch Timeline for Sports Betting Futures Signaled by Polymarket Advertisements
In the rapidly growing world of prediction markets, two major players, Polymarket and Kalshi, are set to go head-to-head during the upcoming 2025 NFL season.
The competition between these two platforms is a clear indication of the burgeoning market for prediction markets in the United States. Polymarket, with its international popularity, has confirmed its return to the US market, while Kalshi, often labelled as a "copycat" by Polymarket's CEO, Shayne Coplan, is preparing for a fierce battle.
Polymarket's decision to re-enter the US market comes with the assurance that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will oversee their sports prediction markets during the NFL season. This move is aimed at ensuring regulatory compliance and legitimacy in the US market.
Meanwhile, Kalshi, under the leadership of CEO Tarek Mansour, has been ramping up its advertising efforts, particularly on political markets. This increased spending can serve as a general proxy for Kalshi's overall marketing trends.
Interestingly, Polymarket has seen three times as much Google search interest as Kalshi over the past 12 months, but this gap has narrowed to 1.6 times in the past 30 days. To boost its presence, Polymarket has bought a federally registered exchange to offer its sports prediction market contracts in the US.
Polymarket's ads do not shy away from the competition, positioning their sports contracts as financial assets to be overseen by the CFTC. The ads also suggest an official US launch is imminent, with taglines like "BREAKING: Legal football trading is coming to ALL 50 states this fall."
In response to Coplan's claims, Mansour has stated that competition is a validation of the business model and that Kalshi has a strong head start due to its commitment to building the business legally and credibly in the US. He further emphasised that Kalshi's focus on regulatory compliance sets it apart from other platforms.
As the NFL season approaches, both platforms are gearing up for a significant showdown. Polymarket plans to launch with an ad blitz targeting Americans and a new "waitlist" for people to join by providing a phone number.
Polymarket's ads do not separate themselves from traditional sportsbooks, listing contract "odds" alongside ones from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. Interestingly, Polymarket's promotions specifically target states where gambling is illegal outside tribal exceptions.
The companies are now engaged in a war of words as they each try to position themselves as the prediction-market frontrunners. However, with both platforms bringing their unique strengths to the table, it remains to be seen who will emerge victorious in this exciting race.
