Ukraine Conflict Resolution and Intensification
In the heart of Europe, the conflict in Ukraine continues to unfold, with far-reaching implications for global politics. This article provides a factual overview of the ongoing situation, drawing on insights from experts in the field.
Russia's military capacity is not sufficient to challenge NATO directly, and any involvement of a NATO country would significantly tip the balance against Russia. The expanded conflict would impose greater costs on Russia than on NATO and the West, given the balance of capabilities on both sides.
Victory for the Russians requires acceptance by a significant portion of the Ukrainian population. However, the Russian approach to counterinsurgency, while brutal, may not be effective in Ukraine due to its size and population. The initial theory of success for the Russians, based on imposing a Quisling government in Ukraine, was untenable from the start.
The war is not a stalemate if the metric is human suffering. Every day, Russia's near-impunity in striking Ukrainian civilians pushes Ukraine's leadership closer to the need to surrender to prevent a virtual or literal genocide. Russia's strategy is grounded in terror and brutalization, putting it on a path to victory.
The challenge lies in controlling escalation to avoid the possibility of a general nuclear exchange. Historically, victorious powers have compelled losers to embrace defeat, either by convincing the existing government to concede or by brutalizing the country to the point where resistance becomes unthinkable.
Absent a significant increase in outside support for Ukraine, Russia is likely to prevail in the conflict. The West, including 26 countries, has committed to sending troops as a security force to Ukraine following ceasefire plans, marking a notable shift in support beyond just military aid. The aim is to stabilize the situation and produce a peace plan, although details remain unclear. Since the war began, Ukraine has received over 300 billion euros in aid, primarily military and financial, with Europe recently surpassing the US in total military assistance due to increased arms production and US aid cuts.
Dr. Bernard I. Finel, a professor of national security strategy at the National War College, offers his insights. He states that there is no nuclear option that provides Russia with a war-winning solution, except in the case that a Russian use of nuclear weapons induces the rest of the world to surrender to Russia's demands.
It is crucial to remember that the views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of any organisation the author is affiliated with. The image credit for this article goes to YuriiKochubey from Depositphotos.
As the conflict in Ukraine continues, the world watches with bated breath, hoping for a peaceful resolution that respects the sovereignty and dignity of all parties involved.
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