Unanticipated Pontiff Ascension: Longshot Pope Leo XIV secures Vatican's throne, defying 98% odds against him among the billion-strong faithful.
On the fateful day of May 8, 2025, the world held its breath as American Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost was unveiled as the new Pope, taking the name Leo XIV. Witnessed by a sea of spectators in St Peter's Square, the billowing clouds of white smoke marked the end of the Conclave and the dawn of a fresh era for the Catholic Church. The announcement caught everyone off guard, from the devout faithful to seasoned analysts, and even the betting houses worldwide who had placed millions on various candidates.
The 2025 Conclave saw a flurry of bets on betting sites scattered across several nations. If you were in search of hefty profits, William Hill and Sports Interaction were your best bet with Prevost, while Kalshi and Polymarket offered more intriguing opportunities for the experienced, high-risk punter accustomed to volatile markets.
Betting Houses and Odds for the New Pope
Several international platforms extended their welcome mats for wagers on the future pope, traditional sites sitting side-by-side with cutting-edge, blockchain-based prediction markets.
- Kalshi (USA)Pietro Parolin: 30% chanceLuis Antonio Tagle: 26%Pierbattista Pizzaballa: 10%Matteo Zuppi: 8%Peter Turkson: 6%Robert Prevost: 2%
- William Hill (United Kingdom)Pietro Parolin: 12/5 (approximately 29% chance)Luis Antonio Tagle: 11/4 (27%)Matteo Zuppi: 4/1 (20%)Peter Turkson: 5/1 (17%)Pierbattista Pizzaballa: 6/1 (14%)
- Sports Interaction (Canada)Pietro Parolin: 250 (implied probability of 28.6%)Luis Antonio Tagle: 325 (23.5%)Pierbattista Pizzaballa: 650 (13.3%)Matteo Zuppi: 700 (12.5%)
- Polymarket (International)A blockchain-based platform that handled over $18 million in bets related to the 2025 Conclave. The variety of betting options ranged from the identity of the elected, the continent of origin, to the papal name chosen.
The Favorites in the Odds
Despite Prevost's triumph, the front-runners in the betting odds were others:
Pietro Parolin: ██████████████████████ 29%
Luis Antonio Tagle: ████████████████████ 27%
Matteo Zuppi: ████████████ 20%
Peter Turkson: ████████ 17%
Pierbattista Pizzaballa: ██████ 14%
Robert Prevost: █ 2-5%
These numbers represent approximate averages between William Hill, Kalshi, and Sports Interaction – the market displayed remarkable consistency close to this figure. Prevost was not on the radar of most bettors and experts, as evidenced by his meager 2-5% chance of winning. His victory thus translated to a significant windfall for those who rolled the dice on him.
Analysis and Comparisons
- Pietro Parolin: Vatican Secretary of State, widely regarded as the favorite, topping the odds in most betting houses.
- Luis Antonio Tagle: Archbishop of the Philippines, seen as a strong candidate, signifying a potential shift in Church leadership's geographic orientation.
- Matteo Zuppi: Archbishop of Bologna, recognized for his pastoral approach and commitment to social justice, largely considered a consensus candidate.
- Peter Turkson: A Cardinal from Ghana, represented the possibility of an African pope, marking historic firsts for the Church.
Despite the predictions, the Conclave took an unexpected turn by electing American Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost as the new pope, adopting the name Pope Leo XIV. Prevost's name barely hovered in the top favorites bracket, underscoring the unpredictable nature of the papal election process.
Bets on the Papal Name
In addition to wagers on who would be elected, many also placed bets on the name the new pope would choose:
- John: +350
- Francis: +500
- John Paul: +600
- Benedict: +800
- Leo: +1000
The selection of "Leo XIV" was viewed as daring and delivered a handsome payout to those who staked on it. Historically, the last Pope Leo was Leo XIII (1878-1903), renowned for his social encyclicals.
Financial Impact
The betting market surrounding the 2025 Conclave garnered significant attention:
- Polymarket: Over $18 million moved.
- Kalshi: Approximately $6.7 million in bets.
- William Hill Betfair: Estimated over $15 million combined.
Although betting houses provide an intriguing lens into public expectations, the final outcome reaffirms that, in the Vatican, decisions are often made according to criteria that evade external analysis.
- In the lead-up to the 2025 Conclave, betting sites around the world, including William Hill, Sports Interaction, and Kalshi, generated a flurry of bets on the future pope.
- The new Pope, American Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, who took the name Leo XIV, was not a favorite among the betting market, with a meager 2-5% chance of winning according to the averages between William Hill, Kalshi, and Sports Interaction.
- The blockchain-based platform Polymarket handled over $18 million in bets related to the 2025 Conclave, offering a variety of betting options, including the identity of the elected, the continent of origin, and the papal name chosen.
- Despite the predictions, the Conclave took an unexpected turn by electing Cardinal Prevost, underscoring the unpredictable nature of the papal election process and delivering a significant windfall to those who bet on him.
