Undermining India's standing would adversely affect American power
The US-India relationship, once built on trust and shared strategic interests, is currently facing a test. The partnership, traditionally characterized by friendship, collaboration, and mutual respect, is showing signs of erosion, as both nations grapple with shifting geopolitical dynamics.
The US remains one of India's most important strategic partners, but the relationship is likely to endure as a more transactional dynamic. This change is partly due to Washington's perceived accommodation of China and Pakistan, even as India faces punitive measures such as tariffs. The official position of the US government, however, supports strengthening India's defense capabilities as part of their strategic partnership, aiming to enhance India's role as a regional security provider and counterbalance China in the Indo-Pacific region.
India's posture is unlikely to involve confrontation; it is to adopt a measured, bureaucratic approach focused on crisis management. This approach, rooted in a desire to maintain stability, could shape India's strategic planning, encouraging hedging over deep alignment, leading to a weakened Indo-Pacific security focus.
The erosion of trust between the US and India is palpable, and its reconstruction would be protracted. This is exacerbated by Washington's reluctance to impose substantive consequences on China for its deepening partnership with Russia, a move that is perceived as a lack of understanding. Expecting India to meet every demand by Washington concerning Moscow, while ignoring its most pressing security concern, cross-border terrorism, further fuels this distrust.
The Indian-Russian defense relationship remains integral to India's security architecture. Attributing responsibility to India for resolving the conflict in Ukraine misapprehends geopolitical realities, as China, not India, possesses the economic leverage and strategic capacity to influence Moscow's calculus.
In Beijing, the conviction is growing that China is untouchable, that it can always manage its relationship with the US, regardless of its actions. This perception could shape India's strategic planning, encouraging a more cautious approach towards China.
The growing perception in India is that Washington lacks the resolve to counter China's regional ambitions. If Washington alienates its Indo-Pacific partners, the coalition expected to defend Taiwan might no longer be willing or able to act. This could have far-reaching implications for the region's security.
Geopolitical imperatives have long limited India's foreign policy outreach, and the US has conspicuously failed to assist India in diversifying its strategic dependencies away from Russia. This failure, coupled with recent US policy favors towards China and Pakistan, is viewed in New Delhi as a betrayal of trust or, at best, a serious failure of diplomatic optics.
Economic considerations might partly explain the US' accommodation of China, but such pragmatism risks forfeiting strategic advantages in the Indo-Pacific region. A coherent US strategy aimed at isolating Russia must prioritize Beijing's role, rather than disproportionately targeting New Delhi.
As the US-India relationship navigates this challenging period, it is crucial for both nations to maintain open lines of communication and to work towards rebuilding the trust that underpins their strategic partnership. The Indo-Pacific region, and the world at large, would benefit from a stable and robust US-India relationship.
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