United States' longstanding strategy towards India transitioning from unwavering support to reevaluation
India's regional dominance in South Asia is facing challenges, as Pakistan, China, and the United States redefine their geopolitical positions.
Pakistan and India
Pakistan's strategic partnership with China, which provides diplomatic and material support, particularly during crises, poses a significant challenge to India's dominance. Pakistan has skillfully maintained close ties with China while engaging constructively with the U.S., enhancing its regional standing as a balancer between great powers. India's inability to decisively contain Pakistan or resolve the Kashmir tensions has led to a reassessment of India’s role as a regional hegemon.
China and India
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is expanding its influence across South Asia, funding infrastructure and acquiring strategic ports in neighbouring countries, effectively encircling India. China’s growing sway, combined with its permanent seat on the UN Security Council and use of veto power to shield Pakistan, limits India’s global ambitions and regional influence. Continued border disputes and mistrust between India and China fuel instability and undermine deeper cooperation.
The United States and India
The U.S. is reconsidering its alliance with India amid frustration over India's inability to assert dominance in South Asia, its complex Kashmir policies, and the consequences of closer India-Russia ties. Meanwhile, the U.S. is engaging more directly with Pakistan on security and economic grounds, signaling a broader tactical opening that challenges India’s primacy within the Indo-Pacific strategy initially centered on India.
India is attempting to improve relations with China, with the external affairs minister visiting China, and Modi expected to visit China for the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) visit. However, the U.S. bet on India is increasingly under question, particularly after recent geopolitical shifts.
India’s Regional Role
India is pursuing deeper engagement with ASEAN and the broader Global South to reshape its regional role through comprehensive strategic partnerships and multilateral cooperation, but its influence remains contingent on regional perception, consistent initiatives, and the evolving geopolitical landscape.
Recent Developments
The recent acknowledgment by CENTCOM chief of Pakistan's sacrifices in the global fight against terrorism has dealt a blow to India's long-standing allegations of Pakistan being a sponsor of terrorism. Trump's statement expressing willingness to mediate between "two nuclear neighbors" over Kashmir marked a clear diplomatic setback for India. A defining moment came with the Pahalgam Crisis in May 2025, where Pakistan downed several Indian jets, including Rafales, and emerged as a tactically superior nation.
India's internal democratic regression, human rights violations, suppression of minorities, curbing of press freedoms, and rising authoritarianism are making it harder for Washington and other Western allies to support Modi's India without ignoring their democratic values.
In summary, India's regional dominance is eroding due to Pakistan’s strengthened China alliance, Chinese geopolitical encirclement and influence projection, and the United States’ partial pivot away from exclusive reliance on India. This shifts South Asia’s power dynamics toward a more multipolar and complex framework, compelling India to innovate diplomatically and economically to maintain relevance.
[1] South Asia Monitor. (2023). India's Regional Dominance Challenged: The Emergence of a More Multipolar South Asia. Retrieved from https://www.southasiamonitor.org/indias-regional-dominance-challenged-the-emergence-of-a-more-multipolar-south-asia/
[2] The Diplomat. (2025). India's Failing Indo-Pacific Strategy: The Shift Towards a More Multipolar South Asia. Retrieved from https://thediplomat.com/2025/05/indias-failing-indo-pacific-strategy-the-shift-towards-a-more-multipolar-south-asia/
[3] The Hindu. (2024). India-China Border Disputes: A Review of the Last Decade. Retrieved from https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-china-border-disputes-a-review-of-the-last-decade/article36751341.ece
[4] Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (2023). The China-Pakistan Alliance: Strength in Numbers. Retrieved from https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/01/china-pakistan-alliance-strength-in-numbers-pub-83651
- Competing geopolitical scenarios in South Asia have led to redefinitions of diplomatic stances, as China, Pakistan, and the United States forge new partnerships.
- Pakistan's alliance with China, bolstered by diplomatic and material support during crises, exerts a significant challenge on India's regional dominance.
- The United States' reevaluation of its alliance with India is partly driven by India's complicated Kashmir policies and its limited success in asserting dominance.
- Pakistan's relationship with the U.S. on security and economic fronts signals a broader tactical opening that questions India's regional primacy.
- China's Belt and Road Initiative expands its influence across South Asia, funding infrastructure and acquiring strategic ports, encircling India and limiting its global aspirations.
- China's growing clout, bolstered by a permanent UN Security Council seat and veto power to protect Pakistan, poses a significant challenge for India's regional influence.
- Continued border disputes between India and China perpetuate instability and inhibit deeper cooperation, fueling mistrust in a region with complex geopolitical machinations.
- India is endeavoring to strengthen relations with ASEAN and the broader Global South to redefine its regional role, leveraging comprehensive strategic partnerships and multilateral cooperation.
- The recent acknowledgment of Pakistan's role in the global fight against terrorism by CENTCOM chief has underscored a shift in perceptions and diplomatic sets backs for India.
- In a notable development, Trump expressed a willingness to mediate between Pakistan and India over Kashmir, marking a significant diplomatic setback for India.
- India's domestic democratic regression, human rights violations, suppression of minorities, curbing of press freedoms, and rising authoritarianism challenge its global reputation.
- The Pahalgam Crisis, where Pakistan downed several Indian jets, demonstrated Pakistan's tactical superiority, contributing to a reevaluation of India's regional position.
- Amid the evolving geopolitical landscape, India's influence in South Asia remains contingent on consistent initiatives, regional perception, and the ability to adapt to multipolar dynamics.
- South Asia's power dynamics are shifting towards a more multipolar and complex configuration, compelling India to innovate diplomatically and economically to preserve its relevance.
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