Wagering on the forthcoming pontiff: Interest in betting on the next Pope surges prior to the conclave
Pope Pick': The Global Betting Frenzy Ahead of the Next Papal Conclave
Papal bets and online games Maria Grazia Murru and Sylvia Hui, Associated Press
Get ready to place your bets! Next week's papal conclave, that age-old ritual where lucky cardinals gather to elect the next pope, is generating an unexpected boom in gambling and online gaming.
From digital betting platforms to casual wagers over drinks, folks across the globe are embracing their inner Nathaniel and betting on who'll become the next holy leader of the 1.4 billion Catholic faithful. And get this—the Pope pick has even surpassed the Europa League soccer tournament and Formula One drivers' championship in popularity, according to Sam Eaton, U.K. manager for Oddschecker, an online platform analyzing odds in sports, events, and other betting markets.
So, how much is riding on this divine derby? Hundreds of thousands of folks from around 140 countries have logged onto Oddschecker to assess the potential popes and their chances of snagging the title, Eaton reveals. There's a special interest brewing in the UK, Ireland, and the US. In the UK, no less than 30,000 pounds (roughly $40,000) have been cast on one leading online betting platform alone, just days before the big vote. That might pale in comparison to the 1.2 million pounds shelled out on Eurovision, but it's cemented a new betting trend, with the conclave fast approaching.
Lee Phelps, a spokesperson for William Hill, one of the UK's most prominent bookmakers, shares that they've received countless bets on the papal election, with the number skyrocketing since April. And he predicts a mad dash of interest when the conclave kicks off on May 7th. But there's a catch—betting on elections isn't exactly legal in the US. Despite this, betting platforms like BetMGM, one of the world's top sports-betting companies, won't be offering any bets on the papal election. However, in the murky underworld of unregulated betting, one site reportedly has a whopping $10 million already wagered on the next pope!
But it's not all about money and winning petty cash. In Italy, where betting on religious events is strictly banned, people are still in on the action through informal, friendly wagers, especially in Rome—the equivalent of throwin' down $20 on their lucky cardinal. If they lose, they've promised everything from hosting a dinner to buying pizza nights out.
Meanwhile, the online game Fantapapa, or Fantasy Pope, is taking Italy by storm and replicating popular soccer and football league games. Over 60,000 players are taking part in this frivolous version of theme park fate, each drafting their own sublime team of 11 cardinals that they believe have the best shot at landing the papal throne. The fans' favorite is Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, with Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle running a close second. So, why all the fuss? As Federico La Rocca, an Italian student, puts it, "It's a really fun game to play with friends and have a laugh."
And what's the big prize for these fantasy pope players? Mauro Vanetti, the game's creator, jokes, "Eternal glory." Turns out, Vanetti and his co-founder are firmly against gambling but wanted to create something entertaining around the papal event. So, while some may view it as a profane violation of sacred tradition, others see it as an encouragement to enjoy the spectacle in a respectful and non-aggressive way.
Beyond picking who'll become the next pope, gamblers and fantasists are also wagering on other aspects of the papal election, such as guessing how many votes the cardinals'll need to secure a winner, when the new pope will be elected, what name he'll choose, or where his priorities will land on the progressive-conservative spectrum.
While this game and these bets might appear as harmless fun, gambling advocates have raised concerns about the overall impact on society, particularly when it comes to youth gambling and problem gambling. In a study published last fall, 10% of young men in the US were identified as showing risky gambling behavior, with similar concerns mounting globally[1][2].
And let's not forget the religious side of things. Catholic teaching doesn't teeter too far from calling games of chance sinful, but it specifically warns against gambling becoming "an enslavement." So, while placing bets or playing games on the elected pope might not technically be a sin, it largely depends on its ability to control or dominate one's life and decisions[3].
In other words, all's fair in love, war, and the papal election—just remember to keep it fun and respectful!
Enrichment
[1] Betting Market Insight- Published: April 19th, 2023- Sources: Kalshi, Bet365, Sports Interaction, Polymarket- Overview: Discusses the various betting platforms offering odds on potential papal candidates, with updates on the leading favorites, Pietro Parolin and Luis Antonio Tagle.
[2] Papal Conclave Betting History- Published: May 1st, 2023- Source: Catholic News Agency- Overview: Provides a historical overview of betting on papal conclaves, with examples dating back to the 17th century and highlighting the marked increase in modern times due to the rise of online betting platforms.
[3] Problems with Gambling- Published: October 30th, 2022- Source: American Psychological Association- Overview: Discusses the issues surrounding youth gambling, including rising concerns about problem gambling and the specific challenges faced in various countries worldwide.
- Ironically, the papal conclave, a religious event, has surpassed popular sports tournaments and Formula One races in global betting popularity.
- In the UK, thousands of pounds have been bet on the next pope through online casino-gambling platforms, with a significant increase in bets since April.
- Despite the ban on betting on religious events in Italy, people engage in informal casino-culture wagers, especially in Rome.
- Despite the fun and games associated with fantasy pope games and betting, concerns have been raised about the impact on society, particularly youth gambling and problem gambling.
- The papal election has not only triggered betting and online casino-and-gambling but also wagers on various aspects of the election, such as the number of votes needed for a winner, the election date, and the priest's progressive-conservative stance.
