World's Ambition: China's Quest for Global Dominance
In the ever-evolving global landscape, China's international initiatives are gaining momentum, particularly as countries worldwide grapple with trade and security pressures under the Trump administration.
However, China's record trade surplus is not without controversy. Global partners, such as the U.S. and the European Union, are voicing their concerns, leading to intensified trade tensions.
Domestically, China's efforts to boost consumption remain lacklustre, with no clear structural reforms in sight that could securely and sustainably increase demand.
On the technological front, China is making strides in its efficiency-driven approach to AI investments. The country aims to achieve break-even by 2028 and return on invested capital of over 5% by 2030.
Looking ahead, there are three potential scenarios for China's future. The most likely one is that China will maintain its position as a strong global number two behind the U.S., but could lead in specific sectors like energy and AI.
A second, less probable scenario is that China overtakes the U.S. as the global superpower, requiring continued economic growth, AI leadership, and an economic crisis in the U.S.
In a third, even more unlikely scenario, China stumbles upon itself, reverting to its stagnation and decline, due to potential policy reversals and tightening control by the CCP.
The Belt and Road Initiative, China's ambitious global infrastructure project, continues to expand, involving countries across Asia, Europe, Africa, and Latin America. However, the exact number of countries that have joined in recent years and the details of investments and contracts established in 2024 are not readily available.
Questions remain about the reliability of Chinese economic data, with some analysts suggesting that figures may overstate actual growth. Furthermore, China's top-down leadership over the country and its industries makes learning from markets and international relations difficult, slowing China's adaptability to economic and international changes.
As China navigates these challenges, it continues to shape the global economic and political landscape, making it a critical player in the 21st century.
